The increase in the key rate will reduce demand, but will tighten the requirements of banks to borrowers
The decision of the Central Bank to raise the key rate to 12% will seriously affect the real estate trade, experts say. «MK» together with experts reviewed the situation in the primary and secondary housing markets.
Demand for housing will continue to decline due to rising market mortgage rates. At the same time, developers will continue to raise prices, putting pressure on the rise in the cost of building materials due to sanctions. And, finally, banks will not meet mortgage lenders — on the contrary, financial and credit institutions may, on the contrary, tighten the requirements for their customers.
< span class="article__picture-author" itemprop="author">Photo: freepik.com
First — about the apartments on the "secondary". Now they are cheaper than similar housing in new buildings by 20-40%. And their value will continue to fall, says the head of the Analytical Center "Indicators of the real estate market" Oleg Repchenko. In the secondary market, the cost per square meter over the next year may decrease by 10-15% if the situation does not undergo significant changes, the analyst says.
— An increase in the key rate will lead to an increase in market mortgage rates, demand will be blown away, what can push prices down, — says Oleg Repchenko. — Perhaps not immediately: while banks have not raised mortgage rates, demand may, on the contrary, temporarily increase — people will rush to buy an apartment. But sooner or later, market mortgage rates will inevitably rise, sales will fall, and these factors will put pressure on prices.
“Some buyers will not be able to afford paying for an expensive loan, so they will leave to look for an apartment in new buildings directly from first-hand, from developers,” says Dombook managing partner, founder of BEST-Novostroy. Irina Dobrokhotova. — As a result, apartments on the secondary market will be sold more slowly, the number of offers will increase, and sellers will have to reduce prices in order to attract a buyer.
Preferential mortgages do not apply to the secondary housing market. Interest rates on loans are 11-14%, and now, after an increase in the key rate, they will rise to 15-17%. Since the majority of Russians do not buy apartments for «live» money, but in a mortgage, such a significant percentage increase in credit will make them refuse to buy.
Founder of Rodina Group Vladimir Shchekin says that apartments in the newest ready-made new buildings from private owners will be the least accessible for buyers. “This is the most expensive housing option and does not qualify for soft loans. At the same time, this is the most scarce sector of the real estate market, because many families tend to move to «fresh» properties. new buildings. Owners of secondary apartments will have to be more willing to bargain, give discounts, lower the price of their housing in order to cover increased mortgage rates.
In the primary market, demand will also decrease. The fact is that not all Russians buy apartments in new buildings on a preferential mortgage, Oleg Repchenko continues: “Developers will have to revise the price tag. They do not like to go down directly, so discounts and the number of shares will increase.
In general, according to Dmitry Golev, commercial director of Optima Development, new buildings will continue to rise in price in the coming months. The effect of preferential programs in the primary market remains, so that the flow of part of the buyers can warm up prices, albeit for a short time, agrees with a colleague, deputy head of the mortgage department of the federal company «Etazhi» Tatyana Reshetnikova.
Developers who sell apartments under preferential programs (such transactions account for 86% of the total number of mortgages in the primary market) will keep loans for their clients at rates of 5-8% per annum. Therefore, some potential buyers of secondary housing will switch their attention to houses under construction. People will find it more profitable to wait for an apartment for a while, but to purchase it at a more or less affordable rate than to buy a «secondary» one; at 15% per annum, or even higher.
Will developers have to cut margins? Or they will compensate for interest on loans, as was the case with the «near-zero» rate, ask for state support?
— New "schematoses" may appear on the market from developers — joint marketing programs with banks, the number of shares and the number of projects with discounts will increase, — Oleg Repchenko believes. — Of course, developers will wait for support from the state, and, most likely, the state will increase the limits on preferential mortgages, which may end in the fall. But it is unlikely that the state will subsidize something additionally – this is an extra burden on the budget, where the situation is not the best anyway.
Further growth of the key rate is a very negative scenario for the real estate market, which will affect it for many years, Tatyana Reshetnikova believes, adding that the increase in mortgage rates by 1% leads to a decrease in demand by 7%.
«Don't buy real estate during the hype period. In my opinion, in the current situation it is better to wait until September. In the next couple of weeks, it will become clear whether the key rate of 12% is enough to stop the weakening of the ruble, or the Central Bank will have to raise the rate further. In general, now the situation is not the one to «grab bags — the station is departing»
“Perhaps, in the next two or three years, the conditions of some state programs will be tightened. In addition, I recommend hurrying up with the purchase of housing in the primary market using a trade-in (invest in a new apartment by selling the old one), since you can still have time to profitably sell the existing property. Further rate increases are not excluded. But even if the Central Bank, having achieved stabilization of the situation, starts to reduce the key rate, new buildings will still continue to rise in price, and apartments on the secondary market will become cheaper.
“If you are a borrower of an unsubsidized mortgage and have already received bank approval for it at current rates (average is 11-12%), make a buying decision faster. Banks will soon begin to review the cost of non-concessional loans.
I recommend that buyers of secondary housing pay attention to ready-made apartments from developers. You can buy housing with a loan at 5-8% per annum — perhaps it will be more profitable than buying a cheaper «secondary», but at 14%.
Or consider residential complexes under construction in a high stage of completion: it is better to wait six months and buy an apartment at a reduced mortgage rate. Already, the share of loan approvals is not as high as it was before 2022 (about 60% of applications get the green light against 75-80% two years ago). Expensive credit will force banks to consider applications more carefully.»
«When buying a home, you need to follow your own strategy. First of all, discard any emotions and compare the level of debt burden with the stability of your own income. Compare mortgage lending options in terms of monthly payment and overpayment, look at the secondary market for an apartment with a good discount. There are cases when it is able to cover the difference in mortgage rates.»
«There are no preferential mortgage programs in the secondary market, so this particular segment will face market mortgages at new rates with almost no alternatives. The only part of the buyers who will not lose anything are those who have already received or are about to receive bank approval for a mortgage at the old current rates. But the term of this approval is finite, so we will need to hurry to implement it in the deal.