MOSCOW, September 3 The situation on the oil market in the second half of 2024 will depend on the oil «black swans» — so the chief director for the energy direction of the Institute of Energy and Finance (IEF) Alexey Gromov in an interview named new players who are actively investing in the development of future oil production and may soon start exporting.
«Further on, everything will depend on another factor that we do not yet take into account in the current picture of the world oil market — these are oil «black swans», that is, those countries that are actively investing in the development of future oil production today and can enter the market in medium term,» he answered the question of what could happen in the oil market in the second half of 2024.
Gromov recalled that in Guyana, active exploration work for oil is underway, and production will soon begin, and in Brazil there is a «real boom» in investment in the construction of underwater drilling complexes. The offshore fields in East Africa also have potential. “It is clear that this (the start of exports by the listed countries — ed.) is unlikely to happen in 2024, but in the perspective of 2025-2026, the first oil from these countries can go to the market in a serious amount,” the expert added.
Responding to the question whether the entry of new players into the market will worsen the position of OPEC + with its course towards reducing production, Gromov explained that potential producers still cannot be compared even with individual large alliance member countries in terms of their capacities. «Therefore, additional oil barrels of conditional Guyana or Brazil, although they will have an impact on the market, it will definitely not be decisive,» he said.
In addition to new players, the expert believes, the market can be strongly affected by possible worsening of the sanctions regime against Russia, changes in the situation with Iran and Venezuela, which are also under sanctions, but are ready to supply more to the market.
Read the full text of Alexey Gromov's interview >>