< br />
MOSCOW, September 6 Only a clear excess of global gas liquefaction capacities can ensure the stability of prices in the gas market, this can happen no earlier than in two to four years, if the growing demand for gas in Asia does not outstrip the growth of these capacities, commented on the dynamics of the cost of gas in the world, Sergey Kolobanov, Deputy Director of the Center for Economics of Fuel and Energy Complexes of the Central Strategic Research Center.
Gas prices in the European market increased significantly in the spring of 2021. Then the quotes fluctuated in the range of 250-300 dollars per thousand cubic meters, by the end of the summer they exceeded 600 dollars, and in the autumn — already 1 thousand dollars. In the winter of 2021-2022, prices crossed the threshold of $2,000 per thousand cubic meters, and in early spring, due to fears of a ban on the import of Russian energy resources, they reached a record high of $3,892. Such persistently high prices have not been seen in the entire history of the operation of gas hubs in Europe — since 1996.
Then, from the end of last year, the cost of gas began to decline, until on May 25, for the first time in two years, it fell below $300 per thousand cubic meters. The average settlement price of gas futures for the summer was $365, which is about twice the average multi-year levels.
«In conditions of instability of external supplies (Europe has actually refused pipeline gas from Russia, and the availability of LNG is highly dependent on demand in Asia), the risk of a shortage of gas (or, at least, its threat) in certain cold periods remains, which may again lead to a multiple increase in prices,» the expert noted.
However, given the continuing decline in gas consumption in Europe, high prices should not hold for a long time, correcting down immediately when the threat of this shortage is eliminated — or even reduced, — the agency's interlocutor added.
«In the future, price stability in the gas market can only be ensured by a clear excess of global gas liquefaction capacities, as well as gas carriers. And this may not happen until 2025-2027 (and even then it is not guaranteed, since growing demand in Asia may outstrip increase in these capacities),» he stated.