The enemy must exhaust its reserves
Assessing the situation in the Northern Military District zone, experts — both ours and Western ones — are increasingly talking about an imminent Russian offensive. They argue about the number of reserves prepared for this and weapons. The other day, Advisor to the US President Sullivan openly stated: the urgent delivery of American long-range ATACMS missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine is directly related to the Russian counter-offensive, which may begin in the coming weeks.
Photo: AP
However, every time we get acquainted with a new report from the Northern Military District zone, we again hear that the enemy continues to stubbornly, but unsuccessfully, gnaw at our defenses, and again there is no talk of any offensive of ours. And ahead is autumn, muddy roads, which are clearly not conducive to an offensive.
A veteran of military intelligence, Hero of Russia Colonel told MK about whether we should wait for our offensive this fall and what conditions at the front should exist for this to happen. Rustem Klupov.
“There is no need to rush anyone,” the expert believes. – Why do we need this rush? In order to put on a show?..
— Any counterattack, counterstrike — and everything starts with counterattacks, after which a counterstrike is delivered — occurs after the enemy troops crossed the front line. That is, a counterattack and counterstrike are carried out in the interests of restoring the position along the front line.
For example, now the Ukrainian Armed Forces have captured Rabotino and are wedging themselves into our defense somewhere in other directions. If we start a movement to restore our leading edge, this is called counterattacks and counterattacks. Well, what if the Ukrainians have not yet crossed our front line? The fighting is mainly carried out only in the support zone. Then where should we conduct our counterattacks and counterattacks? All normal military personnel begin to count from the front line.
— The so-called “Surovikin line”. Now, when on TV or somewhere in public pages the Ukrainians show their photos against the background of those very “dragon’s teeth” — anti-tank tetrahedrons that are installed on this line, or against the background of our anti-tank ditches, this will mean that they have approached our front edge. So far this is not even close.
Actually, according to the classics, troops begin a counterattack after the enemy has reached the second line of our defense. Otherwise, if you attack him, as they say, from a neutral zone, you can get a counter battle.
– About the same as what happened during the Great Patriotic War near Prokhorovka. The Germans were advancing, we threw our tank units there. Our T-34s went against their «Tigers» — it turned out to be a counter battle. The most insane and unpredictable type of combat, which can lead to huge losses.
As a boxing fan, I often compare the situation at the front with a classic boxing fight. Usually there one boxer adheres to defensive tactics, the other — offensive. But this does not mean that the one who defends is weaker. He is simply looking for the moment when he can counterattack. It’s exactly the same here: we need to fulfill the conditions for launching counterattacks, both at the tactical and operational levels.
– So, we need to drag them in there. Give them the opportunity to feel that they are strong and still capable of attacking.
If they feel that they have lost their offensive capabilities, they will immediately go on the defensive. They will burrow into the ground, regroup troops, create reserves, bring up artillery and create all the conditions so that we would have to attack their prepared defenses.
— Sooner or later, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will definitely go on the defensive. But as soon as they do this, immediately expect our counterattack. And fast. It is always done like this: the first day — we saw that the enemy had stopped and was no longer going to move forward. The second day — he was hit by fire. Third day — a counterattack is carried out.
Simply put, there are four main conditions for counterattacking. First, the enemy must be stopped after he has exhausted all his offensive capabilities. Secondly, it must be hit by fire. Third, the enemy has exhausted all his reserves by this time or does not have the opportunity to transfer these reserves to the front line. And fourth — this already concerns us — we must have the necessary forces and means to launch a counterattack.
– Yes, because with the troops that were defending, the maximum that can be carried out is a counterattack. The counterattack at the operational level should be carried out by fresh forces — operational reserves.
— Yes, its task is to restore the front line along the front line, to return those territories that were “gnawed off” from us Ukrainians during their “counter-offensive”. And when we have already moved beyond our front line, we will begin our counter-offensive, which will gradually develop into a full-fledged offensive.
— If Ukraine said that we brought our own troops into battle there reserves, and named the numbers of two or three fresh brigades that had not previously taken part in battles, then yes, this could already be called the beginning of a counteroffensive. But so far this is not the case, we are not bringing our reserves into battle.
Now, when the offensive was underway near Kupyansk, Avdeevka, and in other places, these were all counterattacks of tactical significance, when there was a struggle for a dominant position. Problems were solved at the tactical level of our defending troops.
– Definitely. Defense has the main goal: to create favorable conditions for conducting offensive operations in the future.