Baku's goal is to turn Yerevan into its vassal
As the great detective Auguste Dupin bequeathed to us, the most effective way to hide secrets is in plain sight. This often happens in politics, even if what is being hidden is no longer a secret. Azerbaijan tried to take control of Nagorno-Karabakh, and dissatisfied citizens in Yerevan tried to force Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to stop him — this is how the external outline of events looked at the time of reaching an agreement to suspend Baku’s military operation in Karabakh.
But this external outline, for all its unconditional realism, is at the same time an illusion. The outcome of both battles is already predetermined. Official Baku is doomed to take Karabakh under its control, and Pashinyan, even if he suddenly has such a desire, is unable to stop him.
The real questions of the day look like this: will President Ilham Aliyev stop in Karabakh or go further — to the main territory of Armenia? Who will ultimately bear the blame for the collapse of the great Armenian national project? And how exactly will the geopolitical map of the Caucasus be redrawn based on the results of the current upheavals?
In 1950, the film D.O.A. was released in American cinemas. («Dead on Arrival»), which quickly became a noir classic. Here's the plot in a nutshell: Notary Frank Bigelow is poisoned by a deadly toxin but remains able to function as a healthy person for 24 hours.
Something very similar happened to Nagorno-Karabakh. This main Armenian national project of recent decades has already been “fatally poisoned” twice — following the results of the 2020 war, when Armenia was defeated and actually lost the ability to defend this region militarily, and when official Yerevan recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as part of the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan.
Since 2022, such recognition has been heard from Nikol Pashinyan more than once or twice. April of this year, report of the head of government to the National Assembly: “Now I want to confirm that the Republic of Armenia fully recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, and we expect that Azerbaijan will do the same by recognizing the entire territory of the Armenian SSR as the Republic of Armenia.”
< p>What could Aliyev do in such conditions? There is only one thing: to physically “consume” their geopolitical achievement, taking the last step towards returning the country to the borders of the Azerbaijan SSR. This is actually happening now.
The stage of squeezing out the “dumb” Armenian population from Karabakh through the grip of a very strict economic, one might even say food, blockade of the region alternates with the stage of establishing direct military control of Azerbaijan over the entire territory of Karabakh. Establishing such control is only a matter of time. There are simply no forces in the world capable (or willing) to prevent this. And the fact that Azerbaijan’s military offensive in Karabakh was stopped this Wednesday does not change anything in this picture. In exchange, the Nagorno-Karabakh army agreed to self-dissolution. Aliyev achieved his goal — or, let's say, almost achieved it. And in a conventional tomorrow, even this “almost” will disappear. The “salami” tactic, when the goal is achieved by cutting off small slices every day, is not a quick thing, but in this case it is very effective.
Even if, supposedly tomorrow, protesters in Yerevan suddenly overthrow Pashinyan, this will not change the general logic of development events. Songs can be sung to the “madness of the brave.” But even “madness” is powerless in the face of geopolitical realities.
But then the forks begin. In the short history of independent Armenia, which existed in 1918–1920, there was an episode that seems completely impossible, even fantastic. I quote from the book of the famous British researcher Thomas de Waal, “The Great Disaster: Armenians and Turks in the Shadow of Genocide”: “In September 1918, the Ottoman military commander Khalil Pasha, uncle of War Minister Enver, visited Yerevan. Khalil had a reputation as one of the most brutal allied commanders, who personally oversaw the massacre of Armenians and Assyrians in Van and the eastern provinces. Despite this, he was warmly greeted by his old enemy, the leader of the Dashnaks party, and now the Minister of Internal Affairs of Armenia, Aram Manukyan… Manukyan and Khalil “kissed each other warmly as friends.”
And here is an excerpt from Khalil Pasha’s speech during that visit: “I tried to destroy the Armenian people down to the last man… But now I want to bring peace and comfort to the Armenian people… If you remain loyal to the Turkish people, I will do everything to that I am capable.”
Said in 1918 — remains relevant in 2023. Azerbaijani control over Karabakh is not enough for Aliyev and Erdogan, who stands behind him. Baku and Ankara want Armenia to forget about its previous ambitions and grievances and turn into a vassal state of its “elder Turkic brothers.” This is the maximum goal.
The minimum goal is to create a reliable transit corridor between the main territory of Azerbaijan and its autonomous region of Nakhchivan through the territory of Armenia. It is clear that the fulfillment of even this minimum goal turns the sovereignty of Armenia into a conditional, even ephemeral concept. Baku doesn’t just want transit rights. Aliyev wants the opportunity to ensure the security of this transit “on the ground.”
Pashinyan is not yet ready for this. His plan was and is to exchange Karabakh for guarantees of inviolability for the main territory of Armenia (let us think again about these words of his: “We expect that Azerbaijan… will recognize the entire territory of the Armenian SSR as the Republic of Armenia”). Yerevan has a chance to maintain this “defense line”, relying on the support of Moscow, the support of the West, and the support of Iran. But Aliyev will continue to press. And Pashinyan’s attempts to blame Russia for the “loss of Karabakh” and internal political squabbles in Armenia could confuse the situation and make it easier for Baku to fulfill its task.
Ilham Aliyev has not yet said his last word — but behind him, to the deepest unfortunately for Armenia, it will not rust.