Experts do not yet see any prerequisites for stabilizing the market situation
Prices continue to rise in the Russian consumer market, which will not stop in the next month and a half. According to Rosstat, in September, annual inflation accelerated to almost 5.5%. Judging by the forecasts of the Central Bank, it will not stop there, and by the end of this year it will reach a level of 6-7%. And only next year will it return to the target threshold of 4%. But next year is still a long way off, and the more pressing question is what will happen to consumer prices in the coming weeks and months? What factors work to increase inflation, and what goods and products will rise in price the most? MK addressed these questions to the experts.
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“The most expensive products this year will be non-food products and most likely motor gasoline. At least among non-food products, motor fuels had the highest growth rates in August. Now the rate of increase in the cost of food is not inferior to the increase in the cost of the most popular fuel in the countries of the continent. In this regard, a future rise in gasoline prices may affect the costs of many companies, which will be transferred to the prices of the goods they produce. The rise in prices of imported products will also have an impact. Most likely, the maximum increase in prices should be expected by the end of the year, when the factors of seasonal deflation cease to operate. This process will affect, first of all, fruits and vegetables (mainly due to imports), chicken meat, poultry eggs, possibly fish, caviar and popular canned food. Among non-food products, laptops and smartphones are most likely to become more expensive. And in the services sector, the price of mobile communication and Internet services will rise the most, and the cost of meals in restaurants and cafes, including fast food, may also increase.”
“Let's be honest: this year the inflationary acceleration in the understanding of the ordinary population will exceed the level of 10%. Official inflation will be no more than 7-8%. At first glance, two or three percent do not play a special role and do not seem to burden the consumer’s wallet. Actually this is not true. The population en masse has to take out loans to meet their immediate needs, thereby aggravating the financial situation in the country.
The increase in Central Bank rates, and the subsequent increase in rates of commercial banks, on the one hand, should reduce consumer interest in expensive borrowed services; on the other hand, an increase in interest will become an obstacle to increasing trade demand. After all, credit becomes more expensive for companies that are deprived of funds for development, and their employees lose chances for salary increases. And then these employees enter the market as consumers and, with their stagnant incomes, cannot keep up with rising prices… It turns out to be a double blow to the consumer market. How will this affect him? There will most likely not be a food shortage. Russian agro-industrial holdings continue to work like a long-tuned clockwork. However, related services — in the transport and logistics sectors, in the storage and transshipment of goods, apparently, will rise in price above the inflation rate. Such price turbulence will affect the food market closer to November: poultry meat and pork will increase in price by up to 10%. The same rise in price can be expected from dairy products: compound feed has already become noticeably more expensive, as have other ingredients.”
“Factors influencing inflation can be divided into internal and external. Internal tariffs include state infrastructure tariffs: rising prices for gas, gasoline and fuel oil, electricity, as well as for essential products — mainly food. Their increases are one way or another regulated by local authorities and confirmed at the national level by government departments. With an increase in such infrastructure tariffs and prices, an increase in inflation is inevitable. If only because transporting goods is becoming more expensive and less profitable. Moreover, transportation costs are sometimes many times greater than the volume of various costs, in particular, for paperwork and procedural consideration of certificates required by various European departments for the delivery of cargo.
As for external factors, these include the exchange rate of the ruble to foreign ones currencies, and over the past month and a half, as is known, it has weakened greatly. We must also keep in mind the inflation situation in other countries. Thus, goods from Turkey, with local inflation at 58% since the beginning of the year, cannot help but rise in price on the local market. On the other hand, the Turkish lira, like the ruble, is declining against world reserve currencies. Goods from China, where relatively mild inflation of 0.1% is recorded, are rising in price mainly due to the depreciation of the yuan. In addition, a difficult situation has arisen in the Celestial Empire with gasoline prices, which are rising in price faster in wholesale than in retail. All this is reflected in goods on the Russian consumer market, since Turkey and China are now our main international suppliers.”