There is no talk of compensation or apology
Since January of this year, Russia's national debt has exceeded 25 trillion rubles. This is almost 17% of GDP. Western countries, which previously willingly subsidized us with available funds, now not only do not provide us with new loans, but also freeze the capital of domestic corporations in the accounts of their national financial organizations. According to experts interviewed by MK, Russia has long prepared retaliatory steps: states hostile to our country may also face problems collecting borrowed money. True, powers friendly to Moscow, whose obligations are many times greater than the monetary “tails” we have accumulated to the West, are apparently not yet able to return the “exported” monetary resources.
< span itemprop="height" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/QuantitativeValue">
— This level of public debt is not at all critical for Russia. Public debt, not exceeding even 17% of GDP, is a very low indicator (in developed countries, in particular, the USA or Japan, the size of public debt is twice or even three times the level of gross domestic product — “MK”). Moreover, even if we assume that someday our state will increase the volume of its borrowings to 50% of GDP, then this level will also not be a cause for concern. The threat of even a technical default, as was the case in 1998, when our national debt exceeded the most extreme reasonable threshold of economic decline, is not foreseen. Similar troubles certainly do not threaten the current economic situation in Russia in the near future.
— Russia still has practically the lowest GDP to public debt ratio among all countries in the world. For almost 30 years in Russia, all budget issues have been resolved through the weakening of the ruble and external loans. Officials apparently are not interested in other tools. The reputation of the country and the national currency in the global financial market is seriously damaged by this.
— Frozen gold and foreign exchange reserves, which cover a significant part of the domestic external debt, most likely will not be returned. They can be written off at any time (called irrevocable for the general financial market — “MK”) to cover corporate and business expenses of Western countries: everything will be written off to a new unprofitable, but supposedly “legitimate” expense item, namely the confrontation with Russia — no one don't dare argue.
In any case, the new rhetoric of the West, needed to calm the corresponding category of its own population, does not make it any easier for Russia. Previously, the funds constantly invested by the West in our economy go to other companies — not Russian ones. This money is not used in the Russian economy. The situation, of course, is not yet critical, but it is acquiring the scope of an extremely unpleasant trend. Many states friendly to Russia have also accumulated serious debts to our country.
— Within the framework of concluded agreements, if none of the parties to the transaction violates their obligations, current agreements under international laws will remain in force. True, Russia does not need funds yet. The federal budget should be in surplus by the end of 2023. The Russian economy is focused on import substitution and parallel imports. Friendly countries linked with debts to Russia can seriously help by increasing trade turnover, the indicators of which are increasing.
— Let's return to providing market status to every debt product provided by the international investment community. The exchange lives its own life. Any debt securities without a high credit rating, be it national or corporate Eurobonds in dollars or euros, can only be placed at a very inflated, “junk” yield (including Russian treasury bonds, which are growing in yield, but are losing market capitalization — “MK”). Each issue of such government debt securities is unlikely to bring significant income to investors — even maintenance will be expensive and unprofitable. The Ministry of Finance is exploring the possibility of issuing government bonds denominated in the currencies of friendly countries, for example, Chinese yuan, but so far this process is complicated by various technical, coordination and political factors. Including due to the inability of Russia to increase its credit rating from one of the international rating agencies. With today's growth in oil and gas revenues, our Ministry of Finance is very likely to reduce the borrowing program, so it is also likely that the issue of issuing government bonds in the currency of one of the friendly countries will soon lose relevance.
— More likely In all, to unfreeze the foreign assets of Russian entrepreneurs, some new “scheme” will be required, for example, in the form of “clearing”, when Russia and one of the Western countries will offset the assets blocked in each other’s depositories. It is unclear whether it will be possible to return the frozen, and, in fact, stolen, monetary resources from Russia. This question remains open for tens, or even hundreds of years.