Krapivnik told how they will take the most powerful fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Artillery and air strikes on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the most powerful fortified area of Avdiivka continue for the second day. On Wednesday morning alone, a dozen FAB-500 half-ton glide bombs were dropped on Ukrainian Armed Forces facilities on the territory of the coke plant. Military expert, former American army officer Stanislav Krapivnik, believes that in the near future Avdiivka could turn into a second Bakhmut.
Let us remind you that the enemy also turned Bakhmut (Artemovsk) into a powerful fortified area, but was never able to hold it. In other sections of the line of combat contact, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are already more on the defensive than on the offensive.
The operation to capture Avdiivka, which our troops began on Tuesday, continued the next day. On Wednesday morning, the arrival of about ten FAB-500s was recorded in the area of the coke plant. Attack and army aviation operate. Large-caliber artillery and rocket systems suppress the firing points of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and destroy suitable reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
According to one of the servicemen fighting in this area, the village of Vodyanoye in the southwest of Avdeevka is under our king. According to him, he had never seen such a powerful artillery barrage. The success of our advance is facilitated by “clear interaction between headquarters, assault groups, aerial reconnaissance, and artillery.”
“No one is forcing people into meat assaults,” the fighter noted. — We walked along the trench, ran into a firing point — and retreated. Artillery (artillery), drones, “boots” (LNG-9 guns) come into play. Suppressed — let's move on. According to neighbors, Vodyanoye is completely ours. There are successes in the north, movement in the south of Avdiivka.”
Although, of course, this advance cannot yet be called a major offensive. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are stubbornly resisting. According to experts, October 12 may become the decisive day of this local operation.
Military correspondent Evgeniy Poddubny gives a cautious forecast for Avdiivka: “I deliberately do not write about how the fighting is going on near Donetsk. There is an extremely interesting configuration there. God willing, everything will work out.”
According to military expert, former US Army officer Stanislav Krapivnik, further actions around the Avdeevka fortified area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces strongly depend on whether there is a civilian population in the city.
“For example, the Israeli army is now attacking Gaza and does not think about the population at all, it simply razes everything to the ground before the assault begins,” he says. — We do not act like the Israelis. In case there are civilians in the city, we will have to move more slowly. Because of this, we may suffer more serious losses, because we will have to, as they say, manually clear every building of the Avdeevka fortified area.
If there are no civilians, then it will be easier for us — first we need to level all objects where the enemy could gain a foothold, and then occupy the territory. In the fortified area, which the enemy built over eight years, there are a lot of underground communications and bunkers. Therefore, cleaning it all out will, of course, not be easy.
— The city is divided into sectors. For example, two attacking units from the north and south join in the center of the city, thus dividing it into two parts. Then each sector is divided into even smaller sectors, in which the cleanup work begins. The enemy is deprived of the opportunity to spread out, strengthen positions or retreat.
— It is very difficult to make any predictions. It all depends on many factors — from the presence or absence of civilians to how seriously the enemy has managed to gain a foothold. Again, a lot depends on what state the enemy is in — how much ammunition he has, what his morale is, etc. There is no universal formula.
— It definitely will at some point. In a good way, Avdeevka is a more fortified area than Bakhmut. But now the big question is whether the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to supply this area with manpower, weapons, etc.
It very much seems that the Ukrainian army is exhausted and it no longer has the capabilities that it had in Bakhmut (the Armed Forces of Ukraine, let me remind you, stationed 50-60 thousand soldiers there). We are pressing from all sides. And the reserves remaining after the failed offensive now have to be scattered across the entire front. At the same time, it looks like those who remain will fight hard. So we're in for a serious fight.
— Yes. Before an offensive, there is always a probing of the front. We look at which places the enemy’s active defense continues, and where positions that were once in the “gray zone” come under our control. In any case, these actions on our part create pressure on the enemy and his resources. His reserves are already depleted after a failed offensive. So sooner or later he will not have reserves left to cover all the holes on the line of combat contact.
***
In other areas front, the Russian army also continues to move forward. Thus, over the past 24 hours we were able to take a number of enemy strongholds in the Kharkov region. Now the fighting is going on in the area of Sinkovka, Ivanovka, and Makeevka. According to the Ministry of Defense, in the Kupyansk direction the enemy lost up to 280 militants per day.