MOSCOW, October 19 Analysts surveyed by the Bank of Russia raised expectations for Russian GDP growth in 2023 to 2.5% from 2.2%, it follows from regulator materials.
At the same time, experts maintained their forecasts for economic growth in 2024, 2025 and 2026, still expecting it at 1.5%.
Analysts’ expectations for accelerating inflation in December 2023 continued to worsen, now they expect it to be at 7% instead of the previously predicted 6. 3%. Expectations have also increased for the next year — to 5.1% from 4.3%, then the rate of price growth is expected to return to the target of 4%.
According to the forecast of surveyed analysts, the average key rate in 2023 will be at 9.8%, and next year it will reach 12.6%. Then the figure will begin to decline — to 8.2% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026.
The estimate of the average annual dollar exchange rate for 2023 has been increased to 86 rubles from 85.5 rubles, next year — to 94 rubles from 89.9 rubles. Further, experts expect the average dollar exchange rate in 2025 to be 97.5 rubles, and in 2026 — 98.2 rubles.
Expectations for average annual prices for Urals oil have been improved over the entire forecast horizon — to 64 dollars from 61 dollars per barrel this year, to 72 from 65 dollars next year and to 67 from 66 dollars per barrel in 2025. In 2026, analysts expect $67 per barrel instead of the previously predicted $65.