From a practical point of view, increasing the interest rate will not affect the exchange rate of the national currency
The ruble, which had been quiet for the time being, seems to have decided to give battle to world currencies. Since the start of trading on October 23, the dollar has dropped to 95.1 rubles. And the euro almost hit the bottom, but at the last moment it stopped at 100.6. The question that plagues financial analysts is: is this a trend or not a trend? And if, after all, there is a trend, then how sustainable is it? There is hope. On October 24, the Central Bank set the dollar exchange rate at 94.70 rubles (1.19 below the previous value), and the euro at 100.30 rubles, 1.12 rubles below the current value.
It would seem that the prerequisites for strengthening the exchange rate of our national currency are obvious. Oil prices on world markets remain high. Many experts believe that the obligations of exporters to sell their foreign currency earnings played an important role. In addition, the effect of raising the key rate to 13% also had an effect.
As expected, it did not work immediately, since it has a delayed effect. But in general, the measures taken by the Central Bank back in August-September are slowly but surely beginning to work towards further strengthening the ruble. The most daring forecasts suggest that by the end of this month the ruble will continue to advance and we may see the dollar at 92.5 rubles. The guarantee of this is the Central Bank’s intention to raise the interest rate by another point at the end of this week. And kill two birds with one stone: curb annual inflation, which is growing at a higher rate than the regulator predicted. Well, and, of course, strengthen the exchange rate of the national currency.
In its assumptions, the Ministry of Economic Development does not rule out that at the end of the year the “American” will trade at the level of 90 rubles.
Candidate of Economic Sciences Mikhail Belyaev believes that there has been no turning point in the race with world currencies. “We do not see a strengthening of the ruble exchange rate, but a slight correction. The fact that in the last 2-3 days our ruble has slightly strengthened its position, from the point of view of the theory of exchange rate formation, does not mean anything.”
“The course correction has an inertial nature,” the expert continues. “Perhaps it will last for a few more days.” However, there is no strengthening trend, especially a long-term one.
— In my opinion, they are purely psychological in nature, they removed the opportunistic touch. It is no secret that speculative actions were taken against the ruble. Well, they have been eliminated.
But the main reasons for the weakening of the national currency remain. They lie in the depths of our economy: it is on pause, in recent months it has been growing thanks to the military-industrial complex.
By the way, the yuan exchange rate speaks about the problems of the economy; today you need to look at it. But it stands still, does not rise and does not rise.
According to the expert, by the end of this month the dollar may “light up” for a day or two at the 93-94 ruble level, but then it will return to values 97-98.
Meanwhile, financial analyst Sergei Drozdov is confident that the ruble strengthening trend will continue for now. He considers the exchange rate of the American currency in the range of 102.5 rubles (“Nabiullina line”), and at the bottom 92-92.5 rubles. And that we will move towards this lower limit.
— No one will say on what day this will happen. The main thing is that it will happen. If everything were scheduled day by day and hour by hour, it would be a very simple story. But there is no exact timing on the market.
— We will look at the new input from the Central Bank. Everything is done manually.
— In the current conditions, from a practical point of view, an increase in the interest rate will not affect the ruble exchange rate.
— Until 2022, there were foreign players in the market, the game was played on the difference in key rates of the Russian Central Bank and European and American regulators. They sold foreign currency and this contributed to the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate. Today there are no foreign players.
The Central Bank is focused on fighting inflation and believes that raising the rate will reduce it. Perhaps this will happen, but not immediately. The main point in the history of the ruble exchange rate is the sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters.