ATHENS, 25 Oct.The biggest threat to today's world is what is happening in the Middle East, and if Iran gets involved in the war, the price of gas could rise to an unprecedented level of 500 euros per MWh, said the Chairman and CEO of MYTILINEOS Energy & Metals Evangelos Mytileneos during a discussion with 2001 Nobel Prize laureate in economics Joseph Stiglitz at the Economist forum in Athens.
“The biggest threat to the world today is <…> what is happening in the Middle East because that this was decided not by governments, but by people on the streets,” the entrepreneur said.
Economist Stiglitz agreed that a continuation of the war would lead to higher prices for both oil and natural gas.
The expert pointed out that, unlike the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, where the development of the situation is determined by American policy, the situation in the Middle East will depend on the reaction of the Arab world. According to him, many governments in the region would like to reach an agreement with Israel, but are under strong pressure from people on the streets. In addition, the situation may worsen after the start of the Israeli ground operation in Gaza.
The head of the Greek company noted that prices for energy resources and natural gas will determine Iran, which, if involved in the conflict, will close the Strait of Hormuz, which is under its control.
“25-30% of the world LNG market passes through it. And if something like this happens, natural gas prices will rise to 500 euros per MWh. But now we can’t predict anything, everything is up in the air. I’m not at all optimistic , I am very afraid of the Middle East,” he said.
Mytileneos added that the international energy crisis “is much worse in Europe.” Energy-intensive activities in Europe have been cut by 50% and most have moved to the US or Asia, the businessman said.
Columbia University professor Joseph Stiglitz also expressed strong concerns about the consequences of expanding war in the Middle East. Stiglitz said that continuing the war would cause oil and natural gas prices to rise, which in turn would lead to a renewed upward trajectory of inflation and prices. This is likely to have «huge consequences for the political scene in both Europe and the US», with the Nobel laureate in economics stressing that in the US «everything will be decided at the last minute» and a Donald Trump election victory «will have huge consequences for the whole world.»
“Europe is in a difficult situation at a time when it clearly needs determination,” Stiglitz said.
He added that Europe needs to understand that “you cannot base your defense on the United States.” Trump «has already decided that Europe should not rely on the US, and Europe needs to understand that the US is not a reliable solution now, regardless of the outcome of the 2024 presidential election,» he said.
An American economist noted that Europe is clearly in a slowdown phase, mainly because it does not have cheap energy and also because of the expansionary fiscal policy that the United States has.
“The ECB has decided to raise interest rates, which will put obstacles in the way of the European economy,” the expert explained.
At the same time, Stiglitz believes that Europe’s dependence on China also works against it.
On the morning of October 7, Israel was subjected to an unprecedented-scale rocket attack from the Gaza Strip as part of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, announced by the military wing of the Palestinian Hamas movement. After this, the organization’s fighters penetrated into the border areas in southern Israel.
In response, the Israel Defense Forces launched Operation Iron Swords against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Within a few days, the Israeli military took control of all populated areas near the border with Gaza and began carrying out air strikes on targets, including civilians, in the strip. Israel also announced a complete blockade of the Gaza Strip: the supply of water, food, electricity, medicine, and fuel was stopped.
The number of victims in the Gaza Strip exceeded five thousand people, over 15 thousand were injured. In Israel, according to local authorities, more than 1.3 thousand people died. The Russian Embassy reported that during the escalation of the conflict, 20 Russians were killed, two were taken hostage, and seven were listed as missing. According to various sources, about 150 Israelis may be held captive by Hamas. The movement itself stated that there are about 200-250 prisoners in the Gaza Strip.
The Russian Foreign Ministry called on the parties to stop hostilities. According to the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the settlement of the Middle East crisis is possible only on the basis of a two-state formula approved by the UN Security Council, which provides for the creation of an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders with its capital in East Jerusalem.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict, related to the territorial interests of the parties, has been a source of tension and clashes in the region for many decades. A UN decision with the active role of the USSR in 1947 determined the creation of two states — Israel and Palestine, but only the Israeli one was created. Israel, while declaring agreement with the two-state principle, did not completely liberate the Palestinian territories.