GENERICO.ruЭкономикаAnalysts commented on the increase in the Central Bank key rate

Analysts commented on the increase in the Central Bank key rate

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MOSCOW, October 28. Economists and analysts commented on the increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia by 200 basis points — to 15%.
«The rate increase caused an immediate reaction in the ruble — it began to strengthen and immediately fell to 92.65 rubles per dollar» ,” noted Capital Lab partner Evgeny Shatov in an interview with Izvestia.

According to the analyst, the regulator’s decision will affect the Russian economy with a certain delay, which can last from several months to several quarters. In his opinion, an increase in the rate may have a negative impact on the secondary housing market, and a slowdown in consumer lending, including mortgages, is also possible.

Director of markets in Russia and the CIS fam Properties Valery Tumin told the publication that the decision of the Central Bank was expected for the markets. According to his assumption, the exchange rate of the Russian currency will in the near future strengthen within the corridor of three to four rubles against Western currencies.
As Dmitry Desyatnichenko, associate professor of the Department of Economics at the North-Western Institute of Management at RANEPA, noted in an interview with RBC, the rate increase will likely go unnoticed by the markets, while the cost of borrowing for business and the economy will continue to rise. “Ruble liquidity in the economy is still too high, so the ruble itself and all ruble assets are now undervalued. The previously raised key rate had almost no effect on this,” he said.
The Bank of Russia on Friday unexpectedly raised the key rate immediately to 15% from 13% per annum, which was the maximum since May last year. Current inflation pressure has increased significantly and is higher than the Central Bank’s expectations, the regulator believes. Analysts surveyed generally expected that the Central Bank would raise the rate by one percentage point at this meeting.
According to the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, the regulator does not rule out another increase or maintaining the key rate at the current level this year.

Inflation has so far responded poorly to the tightening of monetary policy: according to the Ministry of Economic Development as of October 23, in annual terms it accelerated to 6.59%.
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