MOSCOW, November 13. OPEC raised its forecast for the production of liquid hydrocarbons (oil and condensate) in Russia in 2023 by 80 thousand barrels per day, to 10.6 million barrels per day, so now expects production to fall by only 420 thousand barrels per day, the organization said in a November report.
According to the attached table, according to OPEC estimates, the production of liquid hydrocarbons in Russia in the first quarter amounted to 11.19 million barrels per day, in the second — 10.86 million, in the third — 10.77 million, and in the fourth — will decrease to 9.63 million barrels per day. The annual average will be 10.61 million barrels per day.
“For 2023, a decrease in liquid hydrocarbon production in Russia is projected by 0.4 million barrels per day, to an average of 10.6 million barrels per day, which is approximately 80 thousand barrels per day higher than predicted in the previous month. It should be noted that that this takes into account all announced adjustments to the production of countries included in the OPEC+ deal until the end of 2023,” the report says.
According to the table, in 2022, production of liquid hydrocarbons in Russia increased by 0.23 million barrels per day, to 11.03 million barrels per day. Thus, in 2023 the figure should decrease by approximately 420 thousand barrels per day. The figure in 2024 is expected to be 10.61 million barrels per day, the same as in 2023.
In March, Russia began a voluntary reduction in oil production by 500 thousand barrels per day from the February level of 9.95 million barrels per day. As a result, oil production in Russia should amount to 9.45 million barrels per day. According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Russia has achieved what it promised since May.
The voluntary reduction was extended until the end of 2023 and later until the end of 2024. Together with the Russian Federation, a number of other OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia, are also voluntarily reducing production. In addition, Russia has been reducing oil exports since August. In the first month, the volume of cuts was 500 thousand barrels per day, from September to December it will be 300 thousand barrels per day.