MOSCOW, Nov 22 In 2024, after the presidential elections, new strategic decisions may be made both on a special military operation and on the economy, says the report “XV rating of political stability of governors “State Council 2.0”, prepared by the Minchenko Consulting holding (available).
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“The context of the 2024 regional elections is more difficult to predict, since the presidential elections in March may be followed by new strategic decisions related to both the implementation of the SVO and economic restructuring,” analysts write.
At the same time, the document notes that the regional elections in 2023 were just as manageable for the Kremlin as in 2022. In particular, the high results of government candidates, along with the use of proven technologies for mobilizing a loyal electorate, were also influenced by the fact that the negative social effects from partial mobilization managed to disappear over the year.
According to the authors of the report, at the beginning of the year, before the presidential elections, regional policy will be influenced by rising prices and fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, psychological factors such as anxiety and apathy, as well as the strengthening of the “intraregional vertical” (meaning the new bill on the rights of governors dismiss mayors after a reprimand), an exhibition at VDNKh as an opportunity for PR of regional positioning and a “lobbying struggle of governors” for the opportunity to integrate into the federal campaign with their agenda.
Analysts call the personnel issue a particular intrigue of the new political cycle. They note that if in 2016 the key channel for recruiting governors was the regional nomenklatura, then by 2023 this role passed to the federal center — most often these are deputy ministers or officials of the presidential administration. So now only 12 heads of regions can be considered to come from the regional executive or legislative branch.
Such a radical reduction in representation has led to the fact that for the first time since 2022, among regional leaders there are more people from private business than apparatchiks from local government departments, the report concludes.