The pivot to the East must be balanced by our interests in India
Excessive focus on China is wrong; Russia’s pivot to the East must be “balanced” by our interests in India. This was stated on Tuesday during the XIV Indian-Russian business dialogue by Dmitry Kiselev, CEO of the Rossiya Segodnya media group. We decided to ask political scientist, academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Sergei Rogov, whether such balancing would be correct?
“I believe that the turn to the east that took place in our heads and in our hearts he is too focused on China,” RIA-Novosti reports Kiselyov’s words.
According to the journalist, we underestimate India, its economic, historical, emotional scale. It “should be noticeable much more than our turn to the East; taking into account India, it should be more balanced.”
– The situation in the world is indeed changing. Important changes are taking place. Historically, even before the Industrial Revolution in Europe, India and China had the largest gross domestic product. Labor productivity in all these countries was related to the muscle strength of the population. This created the conditions for their leadership of China and India until the second half of the 19th century.
But as a result of the Industrial Revolution, the share of these countries in world GDP decreased sharply, India turned into a colony, and China into a semi-colony.
Now the situation has changed thanks to the industrial revolution that occurred 30 years ago and the industrialization of China, and now India.
As a result, a new hierarchy is emerging: China has taken first place in terms of gross domestic product (according to purchasing power parity), accounting for almost 30% of global industrial production, while the US share is only 15-16%. But recently, China’s southern neighbor has also begun to develop rapidly. India has now reached third place in terms of GDP and industrial production. In addition, India also ranked 3rd-4th in terms of spending on science, ahead of it only the USA and China.
– The role of the demographic factor is special. In China today, the population is declining (this is the consequences of the one-child policy), and India has taken first place in this parameter. This country continues to experience rapid population growth. And despite the fact that it currently has the second largest labor force, rest assured that within the next few decades it will overtake China in this indicator as well. It is quite possible that by the middle of this century, India will generally take first place in terms of GDP, overtaking both China and the United States.
— India, which became a nuclear power at the end of the 90s, is gradually increasing its military power. Today it has a nuclear triad: it has ballistic land-based missiles, submarines with ballistic missiles, and aircraft capable of carrying nuclear bombs. India is persistently striving to ensure its dominance in the Indian Ocean. After all, it is through it that the main transport routes pass through which China receives oil from the Near and Middle East. China has also established military bases in this region — in Pakistan, Burma and Ceylon.
Under these conditions, 20 years ago, the Quad format began to develop — an agreement on security issues in the Indo-Pacific region between India, USA, UK and Japan. Their next summit will be held in New Delhi in January.
— It turns out that it simultaneously manifests itself in these associations with Russia, China and countries friendly to us, but at the same time it cooperates militarily with the Quad bloc. Apparently Indian emigrants in the United States play a certain role in this cooperation. There are not too many of them, but they occupy high positions. For example, the mother of US Vice President Kamala Haris is from India. Nikki Haley, the US Republican candidate who is number two behind Trump, is also Indian. All this certainly affects US-Indian ties. Against the backdrop of the official doctrine of the United States, which now views China and Russia as authoritarian states, India is declared the largest democracy in the world!
— Quite possible. The Quad format for military cooperation is working; India, the largest arms importer in the world, is receiving more and more weapons from the United States and Europe. By the way, until recently, Russia was the main supplier of weapons to India, but now we are starting to lose this position.
I would not rush to such a conclusion, because China is still strong . It is he who claims first place in the world in terms of GDP and, of course, he will not submit to India. We need to try to maintain the existing close strategic partnership with China, but good relations with India will not hurt us.
— Hindus are not so primitive — they still continue to buy weapons from us, although much less. In addition, they have already created their own military industry!
– Most likely, there will be a multipolar world with several centers of power that will compete with each other and create coalitions. The rigid bipolar system that existed during the Cold War between the USA and the USSR is a thing of the past.
— There is a world order, but there is no world government. This is fiction.
America tried to consolidate a unipolar world after the collapse of the USSR. But she couldn’t “pull” too big obligations: maintaining a military advantage in the United States, and in Europe, and in the Pacific Ocean. Such a task is impossible even for such a country. So now there is an overextension of US forces. To solve problems, the United States needs to further increase military spending, which is already high. But with the national debt that they have, it is necessary to reduce social spending. But American society is no longer ready for this, which opposes it.
— The Soviet Union was a superpower in everything. Russia is such only due to the large number of nuclear weapons. As for the share of GDP, world industrial production, spending on science, it is small — we are several times inferior to the USA and China, and now to India. Therefore, the best option for us is to increase our economic and scientific power so that Russia’s influence is based not only on nuclear potential.
Having carried out a stupid reform in the 90s that destroyed our industry, we are now trying to restore it.