MOSCOW, January 4, Natalya Dembinskaya. In 2023, the Russian currency fell almost continuously — the impact of sanctions pressure, the reconfiguration of imports and foreign trade. Since November, the ruble has stabilized, largely due to measures taken by the financial authorities. Now the exchange rate is influenced by many multidirectional factors. Are there any prerequisites for a new wave of weakening, or should we expect sharp fluctuations? — in the material .
Sales of proceeds and excess profit tax
Exports decreased, sellers received less and less from unfriendly counterparties foreign currency, the demand for which has increased due to the growth of parallel imports — the ruble has become cheaper almost the entire year.
The financial authorities had to intervene. In particular, they obliged exporters to credit at least 80 percent of foreign exchange earnings to domestic accounts and sell 90 percent. This balanced the market. Since November, the dollar has been worth in the range of 87–92 rubles.
The decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporting companies on the stock exchange will end in mid-April. Accordingly, no changes are expected in the first quarter, believes Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
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“Since the schedule for the sale of currency by exporters on the exchange is not disclosed, theoretically, on any day the ruble could strengthen to 88–90 per dollar. The decree actually makes the exchange rate artificial — it can be adjusted by increasing or decreasing currency sales. Therefore, the ruble has most likely stabilized in a range that is comfortable for everyone,” explains the analyst.
Another factor is that the tax period is approaching, when companies usually sell foreign currency earnings on the market. This also temporarily increases the demand for the ruble.
In addition, a law on a one-time excess profit tax (windfall tax) for large companies that received more than a billion rubles in 2021-2022 came into force in January. The rate is ten percent of the amount exceeding the average level for 2018-2019.
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The budget has already received 315 billion for this tax. The Ministry of Finance was counting on 300. Not everyone paid, so in the end it could be more than 400.
“It is possible that the ruble will temporarily strengthen until the end of the month, since the deadline for tax repayment is January 28. Up to 88-90 per dollar and 97-100 per euro,” says Pavel Zhuravlev, head of the investment analytics department at Renaissance Bank.
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Key rate
Over six months, the Bank of Russia raised the key rate from 7.5 percent to 16. This increases the attractiveness of ruble investments, reducing importers’ demand for foreign currency.
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"You can expect 88-90 per dollar in the first quarter, current the ruble is undervalued by 10-15 percent. But here everything depends on the volume of exports,” points out Oleg Vorobyov, a member of the “Business Russia” committee. on trade.
At the same time, as Mikhail Bespalov, an analyst at KSP Capital, notes, against the backdrop of Central Bank restrictions, the impact of the rate on the exchange rate is not so pronounced and is realized with a certain lag. In addition, the rise in borrowing costs reduces aggregate consumer demand.
As the head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, said in December, the key rate will remain high until the Central Bank sees a steady trend towards slowing inflation. Analysts do not rule out a further increase — up to 17-18 percent. Tight monetary policy will support the national currency.
“The ruble range for the first quarter is 83.50–96.00 per dollar, 90–104 per euro and 11.90–13.30 per yuan,” predicts Guzel Protsenko , General Director of Alfa-Forex.
«Won't stay long»
The situation on the oil market is also important. The US Department of Energy, taking into account OPEC’s decision to cut production again in January-March, expects a global deficit of 0.8 million barrels per day. OPEC's estimate is about 2.5 million. This discrepancy is a consequence of the high uncertainty of the prospects for the largest economies in the coming year.
The following prices are included in the Russian budget: the reference grade Brent — 85 dollars, domestic Urals — 71.3.
According to the forecast of broker analysts VTB “My Investments” will give an average of 78 dollars for Urals, world quotes are around 87.
Experts consider the situation in the commodity markets to be a risk factor: high rates of Western central banks negatively affect the growth potential of the global economy, which puts pressure on oil prices and, as a consequence, on Russia’s foreign exchange earnings.
As Eduard Christianov, First Deputy Chairman of the Board adds RosDorBank, oil quotes are no longer so correlated with the value of the ruble, but the connection remains.
The volatility of the national currency will increase the expansion of sanctions. In particular, on the MICEX, which is very likely already in the first quarter. Then the ruble will fall beyond 100 against the dollar, but not for long, warn RosDorBank.
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"The risks are as follows: the geopolitical situation, new sanctions against Russian business, a drop in oil prices if OPEC+ fails, the abolition of mandatory sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters, easing monetary policy and lowering interest rates. One hundred rubles per dollar is possible for a short period,” points out Andrey Loboda, director of communications at BitRiver.
Renaissance Bank does not expect strong fluctuations in the first quarter. Their base forecast: 89–92 per dollar and 95–98 per euro.