MOSCOW, January 6 The future of gas supplies from Russia to Europe depends on politics; in the coming years, both a complete abandonment of Russian pipeline gas and restoring economic ties and increasing exports from Russia to European countries to 80–90 billion cubic meters per year, Maria Belova, research director of the Implementa company, said in a commentary.
The European market has historically been the main one for Russian gas producers; gas supplies there in the past reached 150 billion cubic meters or more. However, in 2022, against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and technical problems — the physical destruction of Nord Streams, as well as sanctions against alternative supply routes — exports from Russia decreased significantly.
Gazprom's gas supplies to non-CIS countries at the end of 2022 decreased by about 85 billion cubic meters, to 100.9 billion. Almost all of this decline occurred in the EU.
“As for the future of Russian gas in Europe, it will, as always, be determined by politics. If the situation develops in its current course, the EU will most likely implement its plan to phase out Russian gas ahead of schedule (for now the deadline is indicated in 2027–2030). If a course is taken to restore economic ties, Russia can claim to export up to 80–90 billion cubic meters per year to Europe,» Belova said.
The idea of becoming a balancing supplier to the West is not new for Russia, however, it made more economic sense when, along with the constant volume of gas stipulated in the contract, in certain periods it was possible to increase the pumping of gas through pipes and, by selling gas on spot terms, receive additional income, the agency’s interlocutor added.
“Today, when pipeline supplies are expected to continue to decline, maintaining the system for one-time supplies only makes sense at very high sales prices. Balancing the European market through LNG will clearly require less costs,” she concluded.