Experts assessed the exchange potential of the “wooden” currency after the Christmas holidays
The Russian currency met the year 2024 with confidence: the exchange rate of the “wooden” currency brought the dollar down below 88 rubles, which happened for the first time since late November last year. In the near future, such successes are unlikely to be repeated: according to experts, already in mid-spring, quotations of domestic banknotes will decline, and the dollar exchange rate risks again gaining a foothold at a level above 100 rubles. Industry experts predicted what adventures await the ruble this year.
At the beginning of trading on January 12 on the Moscow Exchange, the exchange rate of the Russian currency strengthened somewhat against the dollar and the euro: the “American” fell in price to 88 rubles, and for the “European” they are now offering less than 97 rubles. Such stability does not yet inspire confidence. Strengthening the “wooden” system was designed at the state level: from January 9, the Central Bank resumed operations on the domestic foreign exchange market related to the replenishment and use of funds from the National Welfare Fund. In the first half of the year, using previously received funds set aside, the regulator will add about 12 billion rubles to the daily foreign currency sales volumes announced by the Ministry of Finance (approximately an additional 800 million rubles on each trading day). This policy will temporarily support the exchange rate of Russian banknotes, however, as experts believe, from the beginning of summer the ruble may not have enough safety margin and it will again return to its falling trajectory.
“Now market participants are observing the strengthening of the ruble, which is a consequence of another increase in the Central Bank’s key rate to 16%. At the same time, there is no significant slowdown in inflation yet. According to the average estimate, annual price growth in December almost doubled the target: Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina said that in December inflation would be close to the upper limit of the official forecast of 7.5%. There is also tension in the labor market. In addition, there is a debt burden among the population against the backdrop of falling real incomes.
From January 1, 2024, most likely, the ruble will begin to gradually exhaust all disinflationary factors. The favorable “shelf” of our national currency will last until the beginning of spring: then a noticeable reverse trend will occur. Until March, the Russian currency exchange rate will remain at 87-89 rubles per dollar, 98 rubles per euro and 12.3-12.5 rubles per yuan.»
«Strong The ruble is the dignity of the nation. This does not yet apply to the Russian currency. Domestic monetary authorities are not ready to begin implementing a policy of a strong ruble. Therefore, soon we will see the dollar at 100 rubles and higher. Most likely, this will happen in the second quarter. There is a risk that the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by export companies will be abolished. In this case, the factor of the excess profit tax, which largely determines the income of the national treasury, will cease to influence the strengthening of the “wooden” economy. Currency purchases from the National Welfare Fund will probably resume. Even a possible reduction in the Central Bank’s key rate, a decision on which may be made during this year, will not benefit the ruble exchange rate.”