Analyst Razuvaev: “Money doesn’t buy happiness, any investment can turn into dust”
More and more Russian residents, in order to protect their funds from inflation, are exploring options for profitable investments and private investments. However, making the right financial decisions is not easy. It is because of this that unprofessional investors often lose their money or completely give up trying to increase capital. We decided to tell those interested where they should invest money in 2024 and how much they can earn from it. And for this we attracted professional financiers: member of the supervisory board of the Guild of Financial Analysts and Risk Managers Alexander Razuvaev, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments Anna Kokoreva and chief analyst at Neomarkets Oleg Kalmanovich.
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< p>Now the bank deposit — This is the simplest and at the same time quite profitable means of investing money. Of course, this situation will not last forever, inflation is declining, and the key rate, which, in fact, ensures high interest rates on bank deposits, will also go down. But probably nothing will change in the next six months. Accordingly, it is better to put money for the longest possible period at a fixed rate. In Russia, more than 40 trillion rubles are kept on deposits. The task of the Central Bank is to ensure that this money does not depreciate due to inflation.
Ruble deposits are now popular. This is due to certain geopolitical risks of deposits in foreign currency. But if you compare ruble and foreign currency deposits, interest rates are now high everywhere. If you plan to use currency in some way in your life, it makes sense to open such a deposit. If a person is based solely on profitability, then ruble deposits are preferable. They have a certain advantage: this is deposit insurance and the ability to diversify funds across several banks, varying different percentages of return. But I still advocate ruble deposits. If, say, you do not quite understand all the intricacies of dollar deposits, then open in rubles.
If there are sanctions against the Moscow Exchange, it is not clear what will happen to the dollar and euro. I wouldn't mess with currency. And if someone really needs it, then they need to choose either the yuan, or the dirham, or the Azerbaijani manat. But the dollar and the euro — these are toxic assets.
Let's start with investing in Russian securities — in stocks and bonds. Today citizens have two options. You can open a brokerage account with an appropriate company. Or maybe — individual investment account (IIA) through a brokerage company. If we talk about IIS, then you can get a tax deduction. This is more attractive than, for example, simply opening a brokerage account directly with the company. Most recently, President Putin ordered the development of a mechanism for insuring personal investment accounts for the same amount as bank deposits. For an inexperienced investor who wants to deal with securities for the first time, IIS will be more interesting and safer. Next comes the choice of the tool itself. If we talk about stocks, then the investment horizon can be completely different: from short-term speculation to long-term investment for the future. As for bonds, these are usually medium-term or long-term investments. I return to the question: what is attractive? In general, the Russian securities market is now very attractive. First of all, I think it’s worth looking at dividend securities. In 2023, it already became clear that there would be dividends, and the largest state-owned bank was the first to announce this, and later other companies got involved. This year we are expecting good dividends, for example, from our metallurgists, who have accumulated a fairly large financial cushion in their accounts. Russian state banks are also stable, and it is unlikely that any risky moments such as license revocation can be expected from them. Oil companies always have potential. But it is less than that of metallurgists. Meanwhile, people began to spend more. The operational reporting of our retailers shows that the average check is growing and the number of customers is growing. Consequently, shares of leading retail companies can act as a kind of defensive assets.
The gold market is expecting a 10% increase. But if there is any military conflict, a new pandemic, the collapse of the eurozone or a banking crisis in Europe, then interest in the precious metal will soar. Any cataclysm results in a sharp demand for gold. Private investors should keep this in mind. For long-term investments, gold — not the worst option.
Investments in real estate, investing “in concrete” always relevant. The question is, how profitable are they? The high bank rates that currently persist are hitting the real estate market hard. The secondary market suffers the most, because loans are very expensive, this is strangling it. But I don’t think that the rates themselves will last long at the current level. The Central Bank said that this trend will last for about six months or a year, and then rates will begin to decline. This will be a good stimulus for the growth of the real estate market — due to the fact that loans will become cheaper.
Nowadays everything is becoming more expensive at such a rate that even clothes can become an investment. After all, the investment — this is something that we can then sell and make a profit. This is unlikely to happen with household appliances or electronics. An investor can think about rough diamonds. But for an ordinary citizen with an average income, this is difficult. Investments in these instruments are even more difficult than in gold. As for wine, if we lived in France, it would probably make sense. But in Russia there is no such market. Therefore, I’ll be honest: in our realities, it’s quite difficult to offer something interesting as an alternative to banks, gold, real estate and stocks and bonds.
There is one purely Russian way of investment — These are Soviet Christmas tree decorations. They are no longer produced, so one «historic» a ball can cost 100 thousand rubles. This is a whole market. In the long run this is a very good investment. They increase in price every year; you can buy and sell a lot through online platforms. And if you have a really rare toy lying around, if it is not broken and in good condition, then it can be very expensive. Many, perhaps, have these stored, but people don’t even know that they are “sitting on millions.”
Social surveys show that a quarter of all Russians have passive income. Dominant instrument — bank deposits. From my point of view, everyone should have a personal financial safety net. Which exactly? Economic theory says: this is your salary for six months. But how exactly to assemble this pillow is up to everyone to decide for themselves. First of all, you need to consider the option of a bank deposit. But then you need to evaluate whether you are risk-averse or not. But we must not forget that we are just people. Our life, unfortunately, is finite, and the past is the past, and the future may not exist. Nobody knows what will happen in our volatile world. Any investment can turn to dust.
Consumers need to understand that they are being invited to the market for a reason. As a famous American investor once said: when my driver tells me to buy a stock, I immediately sell it. Understand that good profitability — these are risks. First you need to figure out how much a person can get from investments and how much to lose. If this awareness is there, you can move on. But reliable instruments should make up the majority of a layman's portfolio. Relatively speaking, 80% reliable are 20% risky. The most reliable ones have already been named: these are bank deposits, these are federal loan bonds (OFZ). I can recommend a tool such as autofollow to active investors. It is available from many banks. Autofollow — This is an opportunity to automatically copy transactions of experienced traders to your brokerage account. But when choosing such tactics, you need to clearly understand: the profitability there will be much higher than in a bank, but the risks will also be higher. There is no single guru who will ensure a win-win investment. But autofollow — It’s a useful thing, although you need to understand it. I wish everyone a balanced investment approach.
Among dividend securities, it is still worth paying attention to metallurgists: the yield can reach 15%. In retail, the dividend yield can reach 20%. It's also worth taking a closer look at bonds. If you plan to invest for the long term, I recommend bonds from the banking sector. Here, the annual return can average 18%, and you can even find bonds with a yield of 35%. The list of tools is quite large. But I would advise not to invest money in just one thing. It's better to diversify your investments. Put some part on deposit, buy bonds with another part, and buy shares with a third part. If you yourself don’t know what to invest in, then you can try collective investments: a mutual investment fund and a non-state pension fund, which, in principle, can be interesting options and show good returns.
: In the current situation, I think , bank deposits — This is the simplest and most profitable means. But at the same time, I advise people who are ready to invest not to be afraid of the stock exchange, not to be afraid of losing money. Money can not buy happiness. Are you doing — don't be afraid, you're afraid — don’t do it, but did it — don't be sorry. This is the main rule of investing.