Economist Nikolaev: “Money, like ripples on water, spreads across all sectors of the economy.”
The debate on wage growth in 2024 does not subside. Everyone wants to know specifically what funds they can count on. Central Bank analysts are positive: salaries, which began to rise massively last year, will continue to grow this year. Independent experts are much more skeptical: in their opinion, many companies have already exhausted the financial possibilities for increasing salaries — they can continue to do this only at a loss. The Russians, of course, liked the process of increasing their earnings — they demand “a continuation of the banquet.”
At the end of last year, Vladimir Putin announced that real wages of the population (minus inflation) in 2023 averaged about 8%. The average salary in the country reached about 70.3 thousand rubles per month. Should we expect similar growth this year? Analysts from the Research and Forecasting Department of the Central Bank give a positive answer to this question. According to their calculations, Russians' wages may continue to rise in the coming months due to a shortage of qualified personnel and a fierce struggle for workers, who have now become especially in demand in the labor market.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank itself, as a regulator, believes that there are no reserves to expand the supply of goods and services to meet the demand of the population. And if so, then why raise workers’ salaries?
However, the diversity of opinions regarding the prospects for wage growth in the country did not arise today. Heated debate on this topic flared up at the end of 2023. When industry began to revive, especially in distant regions, this process was accelerated by a special military operation in Ukraine. And when consumer demand increased noticeably — so much so that stores did not even have enough chicken eggs and chicken meat.
It is clear which side the population is on in these disputes. According to a study by the NAFI analytical center, 59% of Russians hope for a salary increase in 2024.
However, some experts urge workers to moderate their appetites and not particularly count on increased income. For example, financial analyst Sergei Drozdov considers it unlikely that wages will increase this year. Precisely for the reason that they grew significantly last year.
“They have already grown, one might say, everywhere,” he is sure. – For example, in catering: from the cleaner to the cook. In nominal terms, at current prices, this increase may be small. But the percentage is impressive. I'm not even talking about state employees, IT specialists or industrial enterprises that work in three shifts. But this is the peak, it has already been passed, now employers will take a break. I do not rule out that salaries may be raised in those industries where they did not increase in 2023. But, according to my data, there are not so many such areas.
– I know two options. The first is to go and talk to management. And if this is useless, then switch to a competing company at a higher rate. This is how it all works. If a person sits in one place for a long time, no one will give him anything. Take the steps yourself, choose the right time and the right place.
Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, thinks differently:
“There will be an increase in wages,” he believes. – To a large, even decisive, extent, this is due to the budgetary impulse. This year, federal budget expenditures, compared to 2023, increase by almost 16%. It is wrong to think that priority is given to the military-industrial complex. Money, like ripples on water, spreads across all sectors of the economy. The demand for metal, chemical products, and so on is increasing. So there is a material basis for further wage growth. This is a huge amount of money that is pouring into the economy. And not only budget funds. When business activity is stimulated, the private sector also revives. And this is also the basis for salary growth.
– Rather, a little lower. Budget possibilities are not unlimited, and enterprises do not have large reserves. After all, the wage “race” is, to a certain extent, a forced measure: personnel shortage. The first way to attract a specialist is to offer him a decent salary. In the current conditions, business is forced to take such steps.