The Central Bank has not yet found the “key” to the national currency
For the first time in 7 months, the Central Bank on February 16 showed Olympic calm and did not show its tough monetary policy, which it has been guided by since July 2023. He kept the key rate at the same level — 16%.
But does this mean that our national currency will demonstrate the same stability?
The question matters.
Photo: unsplash.com
The ruble exchange rate still does not inspire much confidence among many Russians. It seems that for both currencies it is about to exceed 100, as has already happened twice in 2023.
The position of the Central Bank, which was voiced by the head of the department, Elvira Nabiullina, also caused an ambiguous reaction among economists at a press conference on February 16. She proposed not to extend the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings, which was in effect from the fall of last year until April of this year, under the pretext that it had played its, so to speak, “historical” role. And now the ruble exchange rate will be determined by the strict monetary policy of the Central Bank (understand, the key rate) and the trade balance.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance and some other monetary departments are in favor of extending the mandatory foreign exchange earnings.
According to Candidate of Economic Sciences, financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev, its mandatory sale is important in order to smooth out wide market fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate up and down. And relieve speculative pressure on our national currency.
“In this case, I am on the side of the Ministry of Finance, which proposes to extend the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings,” he says. – Now we are in conditions of a creeping depreciation of the ruble against the dollar. But this is due to the general state of the economy.
The abolition of compulsory sales is more likely to play a negative role than a positive one. This will especially affect foreign trade. This area needs predictable ruble exchange rates, and if it starts jumping from side to side again, the business will suffer great damage.
— I do not exclude this, although it will not affect the state of the overall economy of the country.
— I would advise going to the bank, now the interest rates are high, reaching up to 20. You can “charge” “not for a long period, but only for three months and get a normal income. I do not advise the overwhelming majority of Russians to resort to other instruments. It is unlikely that they will make more money somewhere. In addition, in order to receive income there, you need to have a certain level of knowledge.
And a bank deposit is the safest, money there is insured for up to 1.4 million rubles.
Alternatives to bank deposits I don’t see any deposits for the vast majority of individuals.
As for maintaining such a bank rate on deposits, it depends on the level of the key rate. 16%, at least, will last until the summer, then it will begin to gradually decline. Let it be not 16%, but 13-14, this is also a good percentage.
— I would not recommend taking out a loan unless absolutely necessary. Therefore, weigh everything carefully: is it necessary to take out a loan? Well, only if there is a very urgent need…