Economist Nikolaev: “This will happen in two or three months, closer to summer”
The euro exchange rate has approached the 100-ruble mark as never before this year. At the Moscow Exchange auction on February 20, they fetched 99 rubles 78 kopecks for it. The situation on the foreign exchange market, seemingly frozen in a more or less stable position, has again begun to move and is again worrying Russians. Analysts are wondering: what will happen to the ruble in the near future and in the longer term, until the end of 2024?
Photo: Natalya Muschinkina
Just a month ago, it seemed to many that the closer to the date of the presidential elections, the more our ruble would strengthen, demonstrating, so to speak, its victorious march. Alas and ah! Recent stock trading on the Moscow Exchange shows its sluggish slide down. On February 20, according to the official exchange rate of the Central Bank, the dollar was 92.4 rubles, and the euro 99.48. A little more, a little more — and the European currency will overcome the iconic hundred mark.
For some reason, it is believed that the mass consciousness of Russians simply cannot digest a three-digit number of rubles per dollar or euro. And that this cannot be allowed to happen. Meanwhile, in Moscow banks, euros have long been sold for an average of 100.6 rubles, and no one, at least among the happy buyers, is surprised by this and does not drink validol from such a high exchange rate.
And even in Last year, the euro “jumped” from July to October. at levels from 102 to 110 rubles. Many citizens have already forgotten about this, but professional players in the foreign exchange market remember well…
Meanwhile, exactly a month ago, the euro was trading on the stock exchange at 95.6 rubles. Today he is on the threshold of 100. If in a month he has lost more than 4 rubles, then what should he hand over the remaining milestones up to the round three-digit number, that is, his last pennies?
However, many citizens still believe that the financial authorities will not allow this, especially shortly before the elections… however, the current struggle of the ruble for its place in the sun (compared to the previous day, our national currency in dollars has fallen in price by about 14 kopecks , and the euro, on the contrary, has risen in price just as much) eloquently indicates that the government and the Central Bank are not pulling the exchange rate by secret strings and are not keeping the sweet dollar-euro pair on a short leash. The rate is determined by the general economic situation in the country.
We ask the chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Igor Nikolaev: can the euro exceed a hundred in stock trading in the coming days?
“100 rubles per euro is a psychological threshold,” says the expert. — And when it is close, it to a certain extent activates the purchase and sale of currency, increases demand for it and ultimately affects the exchange rate. Although plus 30-50 kopecks to the current exchange rate — This is not something significant or a collapse for the ruble that can somehow affect our lives.
— This is possible. But if this happens, then the “European” will be far away. will not leave, it will come back very soon.
— This will not affect any large or small indicators, including in stores. True, we have had situations when sellers rewrote price tags overnight. But this happened during some major collapses of the national currency. This is clearly not the case now. It is more expensive for yourself to write prices first in one direction, then in the other.
— It cannot be ruled out that the euro may, not just for a short time, but already confidently, go beyond 100 rubles. But this is in two or three months, closer to summer. Everything will depend on the general situation in the economy.
— Psychology matters for individuals. In people’s minds, it’s one thing to buy for 99 kopecks, and another thing — for 100. This is pure psychology. For financiers, the difference is small.