What will happen if the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings is canceled
At the opening of the first exchange trading in the spring, the dollar fell to 90.9 rubles, the euro rose in price to almost 99 rubles. In general, the fluctuations are local. In general, an economic miracle did not happen, because before the presidential elections, some “hot heads” were sure that the “American” would drop to 60, or even 50 rubles, as in the old days. But March has already arrived and there are no changes in the foreign exchange market.
In the previous month, the ruble weakened slightly against the dollar, euro and yuan. And at the end of February in euro terms it even exceeded a hundred – in general, he behaved completely differently than many experts predicted. That before the presidential elections the ruble will “show its class” and will noticeably strengthen.
Now comes the “moment of truth.” What will happen to him in March? After all, this month the financial market expects three main events that could affect the ruble exchange rate. This, of course, is the presidential election on March 17, and a few days later, on March 22, there will be a meeting of the board of directors of the Central Bank on the key rate. Well, on April 1, the rule of mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters expires.
The Central Bank persistently calls for the abolition of this rule, arguing that it has already played its role in strengthening the national currency. The Ministry of Finance, on the contrary, proposes to extend it for another six months.
How can these events affect the ruble exchange rate? While the forecasts are quite calm, nothing special will happen. For a dollar they will give an average of 90.5 rubles, and for a euro — 98.3.
“The exchange rate of the ruble will remain in the same range: 88-93.5 per dollar and I don’t see any reason to leave this corridor,” financial analyst Sergei Drozdov told us. — If the current week in exchange trading closes with the dollar exchange rate below 91 rubles, next week our national currency will have a chance to strengthen to 90 and even 88 rubles. If this does not happen, the strengthening will be in question.
— I don’t know where the Russians got this mood from. There was hope 2-3 months ago. Everything depended on which path to suppress inflation the monetary authorities would prefer. The most correct one would be “drive” dollar in the range of 80-85 rubles.
But the Central Bank took a different path. And today he continues to claim that it was thanks to the current key rate of 16% that inflation was contained. Although, according to the latest data, it has even accelerated. From February 20 to February 26 it was 0.13%, and in annual terms it reached 7.6%.
The key rate in this situation has a certain significance for reducing inflation. To a minor extent. Everyone knows that prices in a store depend on the dollar exchange rate; if it is higher, then the goods are more expensive. This is not a macroeconomics textbook, but a “folk” textbook. formula.
It is clear that the budget needs money, there will be large expenses. The day before, in his message, the president announced grandiose plans; their implementation requires colossal funds. So now we are unlikely to see a dollar exchange rate of 80-85 rubles.
— Most likely, everything will remain as it is, at the current level. There is even a risk that it may be increased as inflation has increased. This will be seen closer to the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank. There is no question of reducing the interest rate; we need to reduce inflation.
— In a country like ours, currency interventions decide a lot in the financial market. This is when the regulator restrains the weakening of the ruble by selling foreign currency. The Central Bank is disingenuous, exaggerating the importance of the key rate. When the dollar “flew away” in August for 102 rubles, the regulator increased it and the ruble strengthened. But then it again exceeded 102 rubles, because no further measures were taken.
— At the moment the market will perceive this negatively. But no matter what they say, the exchange rate of our currency is under the control of the government. And it is adjusted taking into account the needs of the budget. Therefore, the Central Bank is unlikely to make such a decision on its own, most likely after consultations with exporters and the Ministry of Finance. And this department is in favor of extending the rule for the sale of foreign currency earnings.