MOSCOW, March 29The probability of an increase in gold prices on the long-term track is high, and the market in 2024 will continue to be influenced by the demand of global central banks, the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and the rhetoric and actions of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, shared his opinion .
The price of gold has broken several historical records in recent weeks: the last and current one was recorded the day before at $2,256.9 per troy ounce.
“The probability of continued growth in the price of gold on the long-term track can be considered high. However, of course, any strong trend is still often accompanied by local corrections, that is, periodic price declines in the market cannot be ruled out,” the expert commented.
He noted that in the first three months the price of gold on the market increased by more than 8%. “This is the second consecutive quarter of price growth. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the price increased by 11.6%. The price of gold has rewritten its absolute historical maximums,” the analyst added.
«»Risks for the price of gold this year will remain: resolution of the situation in the Middle East and the absence of further escalation of the conflict, high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, slowdown in demand for gold from central banks. However, the likelihood of this event is assessed as low.» — the analyst shared his forecasts for the current year.
According to the analyst, in March the influence of the dollar exchange rate on the price of gold is significantly lower than in February. “In January, the correlation of gold to DXY was -0.6, and in February it was quite strong and amounted to -0.82 — that is, an increase in the dollar exchange rate was almost always accompanied by a decrease in the price of gold and vice versa,” Dudchenko noted.