Circle of guest workers: Asians will leave, Africans will come
The unemployment rate in Russia is minimal: there are many vacancies, and almost no people willing to fill them. At the same time, after the tragic events at Crocus, the state increased pressure on migrant workers. Foreigners are actively checked, fined, and deported. It is clear that the authorities are concerned about internal security, and what needs to be done. But at the same time, a legitimate question arises: who will work in construction, in taxis and in the service sector in general in Russia? My own strength is sorely lacking. Is there a way out of this situation? The following experts were looking for an answer to this question at an online conference at MK: Vladimir Volokh, professor at the State University of Management, member of the Presidential Council of the Russian Federation for Interethnic Relations; expert in the field of migration Vadim Kozhenov; Head of the Center for Analytical and Practical Research of Migration Processes Vyacheslav Postavnin.
: — In 2023, the crime rate among migrants decreased by 3% and is less than 2%. Any foreign citizen, if he commits a crime, immediately ends up in the report. Officially registered 2% of the total number of criminal offenses committed. Such statistics are not kept for administrative offenses. But we can say that in our country approximately 150 thousand foreign citizens are subject to administrative expulsion and a ban on entry into the Russian Federation. Sometimes for significant crimes, sometimes for mere trifles. For example, I drove a taxi through a red light twice — that’s it, a ban on working in the country for 5 years.
: — Yes, indeed, according to statistics published on the website of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, in 2023 the number of crimes committed by foreign citizens and stateless persons decreased by 3% compared to 2022. And if you analyze the figures for 10 years, then foreigners commit about 2% of the total number of crimes in Russia and no more than 3.8% of the total number of solved crimes. But I am not a fan of simplifying this situation. Indeed, even if one crime is committed in Russia by a foreigner, it should not go unnoticed, and this illegal act should be given appropriate assessments.
: — If a migrant has committed a criminal offense, then he is immediately included in the statistics — it doesn’t matter whether he was illegal or came here legally.
: — I believe that the tragic events that occurred in Crocus, of course, left their mark on the state policy towards migrants. Various authorities have strengthened control over the stay of foreign citizens on the territory of the Russian Federation. In this sense, the law enforcement system has begun to work more clearly. And, of course, this gives a certain result. But we need to take a comprehensive approach to the problems of labor migration. The main thing, of course, is to ensure the safety of our Russian citizens. But at the same time, the fact is clear: we do not have enough labor resources. The unemployment rate in Russia, according to official data, is slightly more than 2%, that is, it is practically non-existent. At the same time, we have a colossal shortage of labor resources. Speaking in the State Duma, Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina said that the main problem of the Russian economy is the shortage of personnel. According to various estimates, in Russia the labor shortage ranges from 4 to 5 million people. Therefore, whether someone likes it or not, we need to attract a certain number of outside workers into the country’s economy. The main thing, in my opinion, is that foreign workers come exactly to those regions where they are really needed, and work in those specialties for which we lack specialists.
: — Labor migrants have been working in Russia for almost 30 years. They have already integrated into our economic system. Somewhere around 8–10% of GDP is migrant labor. If we remove them all at once, it will reduce our budget by 10%. Imagine, this is more than the costs of education, medicine and defense! This is a lot of money. So there can be no talk of such a development of events. But we need to establish a balance between supply and demand for labor resources. On the one hand, there are not enough people. On the other hand, groups of migrants often walk around restless and say: how can we get settled? This is the paradox of the imbalance between supply and demand. Let’s imagine a migrant arrives and says: I’m a high-class welder, where should I go to work? He doesn't know where to turn. And, as a rule, he goes to his fellow countryman. He says: listen, you don’t need to be a welder, it’s better to work as a courier or at a construction site. This is how this discrepancy arises. Meanwhile, free entry into our country requires easy, understandable legal entry into the labor market. You need to go not to your fellow countryman, brother-in-law or relative, but to a certain organization. We still don’t have such an effectively working structure.
: — In order for anyone to come from far abroad, from those same exotic countries, the Ministry of Labor quota in Russia must be significantly increased. If we take the CIS countries, how does this happen? A person buys a ticket, arrives: “Salaam alaikum, come in.” All! As soon as we talk about other states, the issue of visa arises. The labor quota for 2024 is 156 thousand. To understand: this is a few percent of the total number of visitors who usually stay and work in Russia. At the same time, there are many times more applications for migrants. Businessmen do not believe that they can easily write an application to the Ministry of Labor and receive a quota. For example, you have an Indian restaurant where 10 Indians work. You apply for this quota annually. But here they tell you: no, there won’t be 10 quotas, there will be 5. It turns out that quotas are absurd.
: — Indeed, we need to radically change this system. We employ about 1.8 million people on patents. In addition, according to international agreements within the Eurasian Economic Community, there is still about 0.5 million. But according to the quotas that exist, it is about 150 thousand. So why is this necessary in principle? Now to the question: can labor migrants from other countries come to us? Probably this option cannot be ruled out. But we must keep in mind that for now this is only a proposal from our partners. They declare that in such and such a country there is a certain amount of labor resources that can come to work in the Russian Federation on a temporary basis. But the final decision is up to the Russian authorities. Therefore, it is too early to say that tomorrow our market will be massively flooded with foreign workers, say, from India. There are proposals, but they need to be discussed.
: — There will definitely not be fewer labor migrants in Russia. Why? Because every year in the Central Asian or Central Asian republics somewhere between 50-100 thousand new people enter the labor market. The birth rate there is much higher, but there are no jobs to provide for everyone. This is the first thing. And secondly, in Tajikistan, for example, the average salary in our money is 10 thousand rubles. Meanwhile, in Russia the same taxi driver or courier can earn 150–200 thousand rubles a month. There is a difference? Colossal!
: — Mostly citizens of Uzbekistan go to Russia, if we take Central Asia. Now there are about 1 million 800 thousand Uzbek citizens in the Russian Federation, approximately 850 thousand from Tajikistan and about 900 thousand people from Kyrgyzstan. 14% of people who come here have higher education. In terms of employment, the service sector accounts for almost 40% of their employment. Next come: logistics, construction, agriculture, as well as housing and communal services.
: — I believe that the industries that were discussed now really do not have enough labor resources. Unfortunately, we are witnessing that our compatriots are reluctant to enter some specialties. Foreign citizens mostly work in construction and agriculture. What to do next? First of all, I think it is not entirely correct to talk about tightening the system for attracting and using foreign workers. It would probably be more correct to talk about improving the management system. And most importantly, in my opinion, we need to think about state migration policy. In 2018, by decree of the President of the Russian Federation, the concept of the state migration policy of the Russian Federation for 2019–2025 was adopted. During this time, a lot of new things happened. The international situation has changed, a special military operation is underway… Perhaps the time has come when we need to think about optimizing state migration policy.
: — Here I can only say one thing. We differ radically from Western countries in that we have visa-free and free entry. Well, really, there is also the USA and Mexico. Specific example. Strawberries in Florida are picked by illegal immigrants and transported throughout America. The berries are very cheap. But if Americans had collected it, then strawberries would have been so expensive that they would have become inaccessible to some categories of the population.
: — Russia’s task is to drive away illegal migrants. What is an illegal migrant? He is practically equal to a criminal. There are about 1.5 million illegal immigrants in our country.
: — I would not call them illegal immigrants. These are all foreign citizens who most often violated administrative legislation. You entered legally, crossed the state border legally, but did not have time to register with the migration authorities in time — and that’s it, you’re an illegal immigrant!
— The most important thing is that you need to start doing this. We must have a clear migration policy. The most important factor is real work to ensure that they know the Russian language. I won’t be able to explain to people how to live in Russia if they don’t know the language and don’t understand me.