May end with a price increase in the fall
The sowing campaign has already started in the south of Russia. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, grain harvest in 2024 may decrease to 132 million tons compared to 145 million in 2023. In general, a decrease in crop production at comparable prices compared to last year is expected to be 6.5%.
After record harvests in previous years, this forecast from the agricultural department does not inspire much optimism. A certain concern is also caused by the fact that the Ministry of Agriculture “unobtrusively” insists that farmers almost everywhere use domestic seeds during the current sowing season. In principle, the idea is good, but, unfortunately, it cannot be implemented quickly. And it means a 180-degree turn in peasant life. Previously, the villagers themselves decided which planting material was more profitable for them — Russian or foreign selection.
And now we don’t have enough domestic seeds. And what quality are they — that is the question. Over the past 30 years, farmers, as a rule, have purchased imported seeds, which ensured high performance. And although grain is counted in the fall, there are already many comments on social networks that the yield will be lower. And the cost of grown products, on the contrary, is higher. After all, the traditional costs per hectare: plowing, fertilizing, plant protection products, the cost of diesel fuel will be the same, but the yield will be lower.
Why are there no good high-yielding varieties in Russia for some crops? Old-timers recall that in Soviet times, the “party and government” paid great attention to the development of selection. Soviet seeds were some of the best in the world. And we didn’t buy them “over the hill.”
When virgin soil was raised under Khrushchev, domestic breeders developed zoned varieties of wheat for those places. And they received millions of pounds of virgin bread.
Where did all this, traditions, science, technology, go? Why did we find ourselves heavily dependent on imports for some agricultural crops?
The same old-timers say that the West is to blame for everything. When the Russian village collapsed in the 90s of the last century on the wave of market reforms, domestic seed production fell along with it. The first to come to our aid were Western seed growers and breeders. At first they sold their planting material, which was of really high quality, to Russian farmers at large discounts in price.
Well, tell me, in such conditions (high productivity, reasonable prices, help in technology) won’t you get hooked on imported supplies? Why bother with your own industry, pour huge amounts of money into breeding, if all modern achievements are presented to you on a silver platter? We got hooked.
Only 20 years later they calculated it and shed tears. For sugar beet seeds, the dependence on imports is 97%, for sunflower 70%, even our native potatoes, the “second bread”, are 50% dependent on foreign varieties. The same can be said for vegetables…
Moreover, the West lobbied for the so-called farmer's benefit, which is given only to small producers, farmers, so that they can also use modern advances in breeding science. To do this, they are given the right to buy seeds for two years, but not to pay royalties (royalties) to the breeders who developed this variety or hybrid. It was assumed that during this time farmers would understand the advantages of this variety and be able to use it. Such benefits for small farms are valid all over the world.
When the law was adopted in Russia, they suddenly “accidentally” made a mistake and provided this benefit to everyone — both agricultural holdings and large enterprises. As a result, our breeders did not receive royalties from anyone, and everyone used their work and achievements for free. As a result, they did not receive compensation for their own costs, left the market and disappeared. At the same time, everyone in Russia paid royalties to Western companies, including farmers!
Yes, over 30 years of economic reforms, various government reforms have been adopted programs for the development of domestic seed production and selection. But they were not implemented, no money was invested in the industry. According to the general director of the Kurgansemena scientific and production agricultural holding, Marat Islamov, selection was maintained only for grain crops; domestic wheat produces excellent yields.
Only 3–4 years ago did Russia really begin to work on import substitution: breeding centers appeared in the regions, and not only state-owned but also private enterprises were engaged in science. There are some successes. But what is three years for selection when varieties are sometimes bred for 10–15 years? Moreover, domestic farmers need varieties that compete with foreign ones. Otherwise, why fence the garden? And there they invest billions of dollars in selection.
The successes are modest, and the new domestic varieties, which the Ministry of Agriculture recommends for planting this spring, have not yet shown themselves anywhere. This is what the peasants are already concerned about…
However, according to the general director of the National Union of Breeders and Seed Growers, Anatoly Mikhilev, the 2024 sowing season should be successful, in a normal, so to speak, mode. But not for the reason that in three years we have completely replaced imports. Unfortunately, dependence on foreign supplies for certain crops still remains. The hope is that agricultural holdings and large farms have retained the remains of imported seeds from previous years. It’s their tradition to stock up for a couple of years in advance. “In any case,” he says, “our National Union of Breeders and Seed Growers has not received any alarming signals about a shortage of quality planting material.”
Our interlocutor adds that in the last 30 years, government funding for breeding activities has amounted to crumbs: for employee salaries and utility bills. What successes are there in breeding new varieties?!
“Abroad,” continues Anatoly Vasilyevich, “in breeding work the emphasis is on royalties, that is, a premium for selection achievements. This is a lot of money. After all, scientific work on developing new varieties lasts more than one year. We do not have any royalties; they are prohibited by law. The scientific team struggled for, say, 10 years, produced a batch of seeds, and sold it at the usual price. What incentive does a specialist have to engage in this business?
The CEO says that we need transparency in the seed market. But the situation with reports on “GIS-Seed Growing” is so complicated that it is not clear what to do: science or reports.
— In which barn the seeds are stored, in what year this barn was built… The year of the last major repair or reconstruction, storage agreement, date, number, location, type, conditions… These data have nothing to do with production. Or GMO. This is also a difficult topic. In our country they are prohibited by law; they have nowhere to come from. However, each batch of seeds must be tested for GMO testing. It is possible to check every bag, and even every grain, if the laboratory services were paid for by the state. But the manufacturer pays for this, and everything turns into big expenses…
In general, it turns out that with a widespread transition to domestically selected seeds that have not yet passed the “harvest test”, all hope lies in the remains of imported planting material , which have been preserved in large farms.
In the 90s of the last century, there was a discussion among domestic breeders regarding seed hybrids. This is the result of crossing several parental varieties to improve yield, quality, and disease resistance. Their advantages: high yield — times; disease resistance — two. Disadvantage: they do not live long, they quickly degenerate. Every 3–5 years it is necessary to “invent” new hybrids that are equally high-yielding and stable.
At that time, our breeders abandoned hybridization as a selection method; it did not pay off in our country. We settled on variety renewal, scientists are still working in this vein today.
Well, they note that strong import dependence in the domestic agro-industrial complex remains for hybrids.
Chairman of the Russian Grain Union Arkady Zlochevsky cites an example of hybrid rye — how it differs from its Russian varietal counterpart.
“It so happened that this was German genetics during the sowing of a purely Russian culture,” he says. — Its yield is 7–7.5 tons per hectare. Our varietal seeds yield 4 tons in a good year, and 2.5 tons in a bad year. Feel the difference.
This year things have been taken to the point of absurdity. According to the new Ministry of Agriculture rules, breeders who work in the German breeding center in the Lipetsk region, where they are engaged in the hybridization of rye, cannot bring seed progenitors there from Germany. They have nothing to grow hybrids from. You will have to use varietal domestic seeds. But that's a completely different story.
— Our wheat is mainly varietal, not hybrid, and gives very high results for spring and winter crops. No problem here. Our internal needs are met by domestic genetics. We are able to weed out our own varietal seeds of different crops; the volumes are sufficient. But if we switch to domestic seeds, the yield will sharply decrease. For some crops from 10 to 45%.
— We'll eliminate the current spring sowing. Since the department has been talking about the use of domestic seeds for a long time, many large companies have stocked up on foreign seeds in advance and will close the required volumes. Winter sowing in the fall of this year will also go more or less well; these are, as a rule, domestic wheat seeds, and of good quality.
Risks are only for those enterprises that were unable to create a stock of imported hybrids. Perhaps 30–40 percent will not be enough!
But for the spring sowing in 2025, there may already be big problems!
— Import quotas remain, although they have been greatly reduced. However, they were distributed to a narrow circle of companies, literally appointed by the department. Which is alarming. Half of them have never supplied seeds before. For them, in a sense, this is Chinese literacy. Although, according to the requirements, any applicant applying for supplies must provide a contract with a foreign seed manufacturer. These companies, of course, do not have such contracts. Maybe there are, but for some reason they don’t show them.
In any case, this is an intermediary link. Taking advantage of their monopoly position in the market, they have already raised prices for imported planting material, which means that ultimately the price of food is rising.
In terms of import substitution of goods, the Russian economy realized it in time and did not pass the point of no return. That is why the domestic village needs to switch to its own seeds. After all, we are talking about the food security of the country.
But this should not be done abruptly, literally in one year, as the Ministry of Agriculture proposes, but gradually. Let’s say, in one year, reduce import quotas by 10%, give the green light to domestic products, put them into battle, so to speak. Next year by another 10%… Moreover, so that each farmer can buy imported seeds for himself within the framework of quotas, and not through appointed intermediaries.
Why such a rush, why suddenly after 25 years of use imported seeds without restrictions within one year, do you need to switch to Russian seeds?
Last fall, the Ministry of Agriculture happily reported to the president of the country that everything was fine with us. Our own seeds are in full abundance, of good quality, genetics are also on the rise, we can provide ourselves with Russian seeds, breeds of chickens, cows, and so on. And perhaps this report played a cruel joke on the multimillion-dollar Russian peasantry. Once they have reported it, please prove that it is so. So they prove it by insisting that peasants switch to Russian selection and genetics.
What should have been done 15 years ago, they now want to do within a year. It is clear that neither the president, nor the peasants, nor even the consumers need this, since experiments with the harvest will lead to an increase in food prices in the country! Perhaps the reputation of those who reported is more important than all these people, peasants and the country as a whole?
At stake are important tasks set by the president for domestic farmers. No matter what brave reports they write, in practice they are hardly ready to give up imported seeds.