Experts explained why the government wants to double the interest rate on family mortgages and who will benefit from such a decision
For families with children over six years old, the rate on family mortgages may be doubled from July 1 , from 6% to 12%. This is one of the options that is currently being studied by the Ministry of Finance in connection with the extension of the program until 2030. This decision, according to its authors, will allow us to exclude borrowers who purchase real estate for investment purposes. MK found out from experts whether the authorities will achieve their goal and what the market will lead to such a noticeable change in conditions.
< span class="article__picture-author" itemprop="author">Photo: freepik.com
Russian President Vladimir Putin promised to extend the family mortgage after July 1 for another six years, until 2030. On April 22, the Government Commission on Legislative Activities supported the regulatory act developed by the Ministry of Finance to implement this order of the head of state. The explanatory note to the document clarifies that the implementation of the bill will require additional federal budget expenditures for 2024-2026 in the total amount of 647.59 billion rubles.
For families with children under six years of age, the conditions will remain unchanged. The down payment will be 20% of the cost of the apartment in a new building, and the housing loan itself will be issued at 6%. But for families with children over 6 years old, the conditions for obtaining a family mortgage may become more stringent. Thus, in one of the discussed projects of the Ministry of Finance, which was discussed by the head of the department Anton Siluanov, it is proposed to double the rate under this preferential program for this category of families — to 12%. This is still noticeably lower than the market: banks today provide housing loans at 16.5-18% per annum. The Minister of Finance emphasized that the main task remains to encourage families with children to improve their living conditions.
At the same time, even in “high offices” there is no uniform attitude towards the proposed solution. Thus, the head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, Anatoly Aksakov, noted that 12% for a family mortgage with children over six years old is a lot, especially for regions with low incomes. A similar rate can be set for Moscow, the Moscow region and other places with high incomes. However, in regions with low wages, according to the deputy, it is desirable to provide family mortgages on more favorable terms.
“The Ministry of Finance is looking for ways to reduce the share of preferential mortgage programs to 20-25% of the total volume of issuances, since widespread subsidies have reduced the affordability of housing for the population,” explains Oleg Repchenko, head of the Analytical Center “Real Estate Market Indicators”. — Over the past 3-4 years, apartments in Moscow and other large cities have increased in price by 1.5 — 2 times against the backdrop of too affordable mortgages and contrary to its logic. Reducing government programs should cool prices and ultimately increase housing affordability for the population.”
Moreover, today family mortgages account for more than half of the issuance of housing loans in the primary market. But increasing the rate to 12% for families with children over 6 years old will not radically change the situation on the market — it is still much more attractive than current market conditions. It would be much more effective to introduce a ban on issuing family mortgages for apartments smaller than 50 square meters. meters. Because the philosophy of Family Mortgage is to support families with children, fertility, and demography. But studios and even one-room apartments are not apartments for family living, the expert believes.
“Perhaps the government is making such a decision in order to support only families with newborn children,” suggested Alexey Novikov, director of the mortgage lending department at Est-a-Tet. And there are also expectations that this initiative may cause a decrease in real estate prices, especially in the primary market. “According to our forecasts, the market will decline by 10-15% after the implementation of this initiative,” said Denis Astafiev, founder of the investment company SharesPro.
In addition to the interests of the budget, the proposed proposal of the Ministry of Finance under discussion may benefit credit institutions. Thus, according to the owner of the Udacha Group of Companies, Vladimir Prokhorov, this solution is of interest to banks, which will thus be able to reduce their expenses for subsidizing rates under the preferential lending program. And it would be more logical for the authorities to work out measures to encourage citizens to purchase not one-room apartments, but large-area housing, which, obviously, is more suitable for families with children, the expert emphasized.