«Millions are ready to serve their new homeland»
After the terrorist attack at Crocus, attention to migrants from Central Asia intensified. It is proposed to change the requirements for entry into Russia, the conditions for obtaining a patent, and the Russian language exam. Economists from the Institute of Research and Expertise have proposed an alternative path: instead of the republics of the former USSR, pay attention to the countries of Africa and Latin America. This will supposedly improve demographics and reduce the labor shortage.
The scientists' forecast was published in the report “Long-term scenarios for the development of the Russian economy.” It says here that by 2050 the population of Russia can be increased to 160.2 million people. To do this, it is necessary to allocate more funds for healthcare, and in addition, to provide measures to support labor and educational migration, including from countries in Africa and Latin America.
Migration growth by 2050 in an optimistic scenario will be “above the values of the last 10 years due to the expansion of the coverage of donor countries: strengthening cooperation in the field of education and labor with countries in Africa and Latin America,” the economists write. It is understood that from these countries not only representatives of blue-collar professions, but also highly qualified personnel will pour into Russia. For example, inexpensive medical workers, for which Cuba is so famous.
The prospects of this idea were assessed by leading Russian experts. Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development Yuri Krupnov believes that with the help of Latin and African additives the demography in Russia cannot be raised:
— In order not to frighten the population, attempts are being made to portray that the countries from which it will come a new influx of migrants will be treated as civilized in everyday life. We must understand that these are irresponsible proposals. They have already sounded, and more than once. In the mid-2000s, academic authors wrote: “Let’s bring 20 million Chinese to Russia.” I would like to ask: “We’ll bring it, so what?” Millions of Chinese will not solve the problem.
The main goal of attracting migrants is explained by the shortage of personnel. Allegedly, Russia lacks both qualified labor and labor.
I assure you that we have a surplus of labor. Our economy is super-extensive. If robots and automation are used all over the world, then we still have a shovel system. And with a shovel system, there won’t be enough migrants…
To satisfy the personnel shortage, it is necessary to look for labor force among Russian men. For example, a huge resource is security guards in stores. All day long the men sit and get bored. They just disappear. Question: why not introduce them into the economy? And the security of premises should be entrusted to high technology.
Or one more indicator. According to statistics, there are 10 million self-employed people in Russia. Basically they are all involved in trade. In reality, this is the survival of people due to the lack of modern jobs.
Young people should be hired for the most highly qualified production. So that by the age of 30 they will have earned all the money, and not just the sons of officials.
– There will be no outflow. We are a migrant-dependent country, and people will take advantage of this dependence. Nobody knows how many migrants we have at the moment. Judging by the number of patents — 2.5 million. And according to law enforcement agencies, from 7 to 15 million.
However, there is another opinion in the expert community: the idea of an influx of labor from Africa is not so bad, a leading orientalist is sure.
– The African continent is the main source of labor and migration flows. Europe, the US and China are competing for migrants from Africa. Due to the demographic growth and high mobility of Africans, their ability to quickly learn new languages and adapt to foreign cultures, there is hardly any alternative in the long term.
It should be taken into account that thanks to the close ties between the USSR and African countries, the majority of Africans are still loyal to Russia. Many are ready to come, despite climate restrictions.
But we must prepare for increased migration from Africa. It is necessary to establish mechanisms for cultural and linguistic adaptation and create incentives for the migration of the most qualified labor force. Just as in the case of Central Asia, the prevention of extremism is important, and from two sides: both in the host environment and among migrants.
It is important that millions of Africans are potentially receptive to our language and culture; they are ready to come to Russia not just to earn money, but to live here and serve their new homeland.