MOSCOW, April 29 The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, which assumes that the dollar is more expensive than 100 rubles over the next three years, is quite justified, but the strengthening of the national currency to 70 is not yet It’s better not to dream, Ilya Fedorov, chief economist at BCS World of Investments, told the Prime agency.
The fact is that there are now much fewer opportunities for strengthening the ruble than for weakening it. The problems with exports noted in the same forecast really exist, but not only exports, but also imports raise questions, says Fedorov.
In addition, in the face of problems with money transfers, it is possible to predict the flow of currency into the country, and, consequently, the exchange rate, extremely difficult. “It’s easier to put a weaker exchange rate in the forecast than to explain its weakening in the future,” the economist believes.
One of the few factors that can hold the ruble is the authorities’ concern about returning to low inflation rates and maintaining supply volumes currencies on the foreign exchange market, Fedorov added.