The expert explained why the phenomenon discovered in space is dangerous for the wallets of Russians
The high key rate was supposed to curb price increases by cooling the economy. However, inflation is not receding, and the economy is in no hurry to cool down, despite the regulator’s tough monetary policy. Last week, a representative of a large state bank spoke about this unexpected fact, comparing it with the effect of astronaut Vladimir Dzhanibekov. The head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, also commented on this phenomenon at a press conference after the decision of the regulator’s Board of Directors not to change the key rate. MK found out from the head of the analytical department of the BKF bank Maxim Osadchy about how the phenomenon noticed in space could affect the well-being of Russians.
— In 1985, Soviet cosmonaut Vladimir Dzhanibekov, during a flight at the Salyut 7 station, unpacked cargo secured with wing nuts. This happened, naturally, in zero gravity. While unscrewing the nuts, he noticed something strange: the rotating nut was flying in a certain direction, while it turned over 180 degrees, and then, after a few seconds, turned over again, continuing to fly in the same direction. So she tumbled with a constant frequency, without any external influence. The theoretical mechanics course contains the intermediate axis theorem, otherwise known as the tennis racket theorem, which explains this effect. This result has been known since 1834. But theoretical mechanics is taught in the 2nd year of the physics department, and Dzhanibekov studied at the physics department of Leningrad University for only a year and then went to military school. Accordingly, he could not understand the reason for such mysterious behavior of the nut. However, the funniest thing is that the military, also not understanding the reason for the phenomenon, immediately classified it for 10 years! Apparently they were going to use this effect in space wars.
— Last week, interest in the Dzhanibekov effect suddenly increased. On April 25, First Deputy Chairman of VTB Dmitry Pyanov, speaking to reporters, likened the effects of the influence of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the Russian economy to the Dzhanibekov effect — somersaults of a nut in space. He noted with regret that the 16% rate is not sufficiently cooling in an economy that is “still moving towards very high growth rates.” In his opinion, the Central Bank is in a dilemma: it cannot raise the rate from 16%, it has given a lot of signals that this is the maximum.
The next day, April 26, this comparison was already discussed at the press conference of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the key rate. The comparison, of course, is so-so — after all, a nut in space tumbles with strict frequency and turns over exactly 180 degrees each time, which obviously cannot be said about the Russian economy.
— This rather captures the fact that the Russian economy behaves unpredictably, including for the regulator, demonstrating growth despite its tough monetary policy. The economy is warming up despite cooling pressure from the regulator, despite the high key rate of 16%, which was supposed to slow down business activity. It is clear that there is nothing surprising here, because the Central Bank’s tough monetary policy is accompanied by a soft fiscal (that is, budgetary — editor’s note) policy of the Ministry of Finance, and huge injections of government funds into the economy in the form of government orders. And the high price of oil contributes to the growth of the Russian economy despite the tightening of sanctions. Continuing this analogy, after observing an unexpected upward somersault, we can expect a downward somersault. And he certainly will. The question is when and how tough.
— The growth of the economy and wages is associated primarily with huge budget injections, which are reflected in both the labor market and household incomes. However, this holiday of unprecedented generosity will end when the “liquid part of the National Welfare Fund” is empty. Then the Dzhanibekov effect can work in full: the economy, without generous budget injections, will cool sharply and “tumble” downwards. I would like to avoid such a scenario.