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MOSCOW, May 2. The pessimistic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development that by 2026 the dollar will cost more than 100 rubles is justified at this stage, he said in an interview with the Prime agency «Deputy Director of the Development Center Institute of the National Research University Higher School of Economics Valery Mironov.
He recalled that factors influencing the ruble can change their weight and significance over time. So, last fall, the Ministry of Economy expected the dollar exchange rate in 2024 to be 90.1 rubles, and now it is 94.7 rubles. This is due to changes over the past six months in the assessment of imports, exports and the current account. Thus, oil revenues could decline due to sanctions or cheaper raw materials, and imports could rise above expectations.
< br />Government agencies use very complex models to calculate forecasts of exchange rates. “Their result is predetermined by the combination of prerequisites and complex mathematical calculations included in the model. And one can only believe this result,” argues Mironov.
At the same time, a weak currency is beneficial to the economy: revenues from exports to the budget are growing, and imports are decreasing. Domestic producers also receive an incentive for development Therefore, expectations of the dollar at 100 rubles and more are quite logical, but in three years everything can change, the economist concluded.