Populist parties are tapping into growing public anger
Soaring rents and sky-high property prices risk becoming a key battleground in European politics as far-right and populist parties begin to exploit growing public anger over about the housing crisis on the continent, experts say.
Weeks before European Parliament elections, in which far-right parties are forecast to take first place in nine EU member states and second or third in nine more, the housing issue could become as powerful a driver of far-right support as the issue of immigration , writes The Guardian.
“Far-right parties thrive when they can exploit social gaps arising from underinvestment and inadequate government planning, and when they can blame outsiders,” said the UN special rapporteur on the issue of the right to adequate housing.
“This is exactly the situation many EU countries now find themselves in,” Balakrishnan Rajagopal emphasizes in an interview with The Guardian. – The housing crisis no longer affects only the poor, migrants, single-parent families, but also the middle class. This is a social problem of the 21st century.”
The lack of affordable housing has already sparked protests in Lisbon, Amsterdam, Prague, Milan and – outside the EU – London, with young people particularly angry that rents are eating up half their income, and mortgage loans are 10 times higher than the average salary.
This was the issue that weighed most on voters' minds in last year's Dutch elections, which were won by Geert Wilders' far-right Freedom Party (PVV) and played a role in the rise in support for Portugal's Chega party, which nearly tripled its share of the vote in March.
< p>“This topic is relevant for many far-right parties,” comments Catherine Fieschi from the European University Institute. “It’s easy to frame this as a clash between elites and people and argue that migrants are treated better than citizens of other countries.”
Eurostat data shows that in the 27 member countries of the European Union, house prices have risen by 47 % between 2010 and 2022, and rents increased by 18% over the same period. In some countries, more than a fifth of households spend 40% or more of their disposable income on housing.
Recent scientific research has established a clear link between rising rents and voting for the far right — even without strong anti-immigration rhetoric.
Tariq Abu-Shadi, an EU policy specialist and co-author of a study that found rising local rents were reflected in growing support for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party in Germany, said «fear of loss of status» was a key factor .
“These data show that housing is now part of a wider range of economic and social threats and uncertainties that are causing concern,” the expert said. “The fear that you might have to move out of your home because you can't afford it is leading to increased support for the radical right.”
The study combined detailed data on rents with responses from local residents to An annual German public opinion poll conducted by the Group of Socio-Economic Experts found that rising rents were associated with greater support for the far-right AfD party, especially among low-income renters.
According to Abu-Shadi, most of the Alternative for Germany's support comes from the more backward rural regions where rents remain relatively low, and the effect was even stronger in urban areas, which may explain the party's growing share of the vote in cities.< /p>
“What's interesting is that the relationship holds even when people's rents may not have actually increased,” Tariq Abu-Shadi points out. “It's not just about real difficulties, but also about anxiety — a threat to social and economic status.”
So far, the AfD has made little attempt to play the housing card, while in Portugal Chega has focused more on corruption than on a crisis exacerbated — in cities such as Lisbon and Porto — by a huge boom in holiday rentals and high-income digital nomads, writes The Guardian.
“But the likelihood that housing will become a very important factor in the vote of the far right is clear, and will only increase in the future,” says Vicente Valentim, an Oxford University specialist on the far right in Europe.
The leading parties are starting to realize threat. In January, mayors of major cities called for an urgent focus on more affordable, quality and sustainable housing, while MEPs and housing ministers called for housing to be made a top EU priority.
Rajagopal, who recently wrote about the housing crisis in the Netherlands, notes that the first step must be to enshrine affordable, adequate and secure housing as a legal right.
“EU countries have a long and commendable tradition of social protection and welfare «, — he said. “But when it comes to recognizing the right to housing as a legal human right, Europe lags behind international law. EU citizens cannot apply to their national courts in housing matters. European countries recognize this, but do nothing about it.”
Moreover, according to Rajagopal, the housing crisis in Europe, including the UK, was the result of “treating housing like any other commodity that can be bought and sold” and the failure of government planning.
“In fact, markets only care about themselves,” the expert notes. “If you also give up government planning, no one will provide housing. And this is what allows the PVV, for example, to blame migrants for the Dutch crisis when there is no evidence that migrants are to blame. If we want to stop the rise of the far right, to deprive it of oxygen, things like housing must be seen as fundamental rights.”
Sorcha Edwards, general secretary of the NGO Housing Europe, agrees. “Obviously we need to build more,” she said. “But a proposal is not the only answer. What matters is what kind of housing we build and with what financing.”
The market approach to housing, relying on profit-driven private capital and charities to clean up the mess, must now give way, Edwards said. patient funding in the public interest with social conditions and commitments: “There needs to be a real cultural shift. The basis should be a sector with limited profits. Not just council housing, but also alternative forms of ownership such as co-operatives. We absolutely need to build with the right money.”