New war corridor
Russia “may soon restore its military potential” and attack NATO countries as early as 2026. So says Polish President Duda. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz does not rule out a conflict between Russia and NATO. Zelensky and the Baltic states tirelessly talk about Russia’s inevitable attack on NATO. Putin has repeatedly called such statements nonsense and nonsense. But it’s almost impossible to believe that Russia will be left alone “after Ukraine.”
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You don’t need to be particularly observant to notice a change in the rhetoric of our main geopolitical opponents. If initially there was a “strategic defeat of Russia on the battlefield,” now the song is completely different. Here is one of the latest statements by the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell: “Since we committed to support Ukraine at the beginning of the conflict, we must continue to support until the Ukrainians are unable to resist.” Very frankly: we are no longer talking about victory in Ukraine, the West already understands that Russia will win (Borrell says so: “until Putin decides” to end it), we are talking about prolonging the conflict literally “until the last Ukrainian.” But what next?
The end of the conflict in Ukraine without any continuation will be a loss for the West, a confirmation of Russia’s correctness and its strengthening, and will turn a huge cohort of Western politicians into political corpses. So Russia is simply obliged to “attack”, confirming statements about “aggressive essence and imperial ambitions”: “world evil” must be world evil. And we need to somehow explain military expenditures that clearly do not benefit the well-being of ordinary people. The same Duda stated some time ago: “This is a matter of common sense. New reports are appearing, and I recently saw a report by German experts, according to which, perhaps already at the turn of 2026 and 2027, Putin, having transferred his economy to a military footing, will have such a military potential (…) that will allow him to attack NATO.” .
It is possible to guess with a high degree of probability how this will be done. Moreover, the technology was already tested during the Russian-Georgian conflict in 2008. Then an armed attack by Georgian troops was carried out on the base of Russian peacekeepers. And our response to this provocation in the Western media was shown as an attack by Russia on peaceful Georgia. Exactly the same can be expected “after Ukraine”. A provocation — armed or not — will force Russia to use force. And, naturally, this will be presented as aggression by the Kremlin. The West will be able to exhale: “we told you so,” and the United States itself will receive a continuation of the weakening of Europe and Russia, which is so beneficial to them.
By the way, one of the options, rather a backup rather than the main one, is Georgia again. Now, as we see, the situation around the law on foreign agents is evolving there. It is happening absolutely according to the “color revolution” methodology. And, most importantly, it’s not just anti-Russian slogans that are thrown into the crowd (and clashes with the police are becoming more frequent) — the law itself, copied from the American one, is naturally called pro-Russian. Nationalist slogans are being thrown in calling for the return of both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Ukrainization of Georgia's internal political life is taking place. Although healthy political forces in Georgia have good resources, which means the West cannot yet count on a quick anti-Russian result. But Georgia is suitable as a backup option. Also for the reason that it is not a member of NATO, and therefore will make it easier for the West to react to the “Russian attack” — there will be no need to intervene directly with the help of the alliance, that is, again according to the Ukrainian scheme, only “until the last Georgian.”
There is also a Belarusian version. What Lukashenko spoke about indirectly. In this option, the forces of “Belarusian” nationalists, now fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, enter the territory of Belarus, declare part of the territory “independent”, and ask for Western help in the fight against the inevitable “Belarusian-Russian aggression” against a “tyranny-free republic.” However, Lukashenko, whose words do not differ from his deeds, is extremely determined and threatens, in case of provocation, to immediately strike with all his might, right up to tactical nuclear weapons.
The most likely option seems to be that the Baltic states become the new theater of military operations. There will not even be a need for a provocation with the use of military force — the Balts, incited by the United States, will only need to organize a strict blockade of the Kaliningrad region. By the way, you can notice that touchstones are already being thrown — they are limiting Russian rail and road transit to the region, they are talking about recognizing the Baltic Sea as almost an “internal NATO sea.” In this case, Russia will have to conduct its sea convoys under escort, under the protection of its warships, which is fraught with incidents. But the main and, perhaps, the only solution is that we will have to “cut through” the Suwalki corridor. This is a small isthmus at the junction of the borders of Poland and Lithuania, the shortest route from Belarus to the Kaliningrad region. It is interesting that de jure Russia will have its right and this will allow NATO again not to apply Article 5 of the Charter on assistance in the event of an attack on an alliance country. Do not apply exactly as much time as they deem necessary. But, obviously, it will again be announced to the whole world that Putin attacked. The Bild publication, by the way, some time ago already began to prepare the public for such a scenario and published the “Russian plan”: they say that Russia has already begun to import troops and weapons into the Kaliningrad region, and the second blow will be delivered from Belarus.
Whatever the plan, it can be absolutely unequivocally stated: in any case, we will be declared aggressors and made guilty (although only a blind person would not see that this is not so) and most importantly, the confrontation in the West will still be very, very long.