“The most important thing for the exchange rate is the upper range”
The ruble did not meet Victory Day in optimal condition: the day before on the Moscow Exchange the dollar won back 84.25 kopecks from the Russian currency. and came close to the 92 ruble mark. What this is connected with is not known for certain. Apparently, a certain combination of factors was at work. These include the approaching long weekend in Russia and the fall in prices for benchmark Brent oil to $81.97 per barrel.
At the same time, there are at least three circumstances that in the near future (and not only) will play in favor of the ruble. Firstly, in May the Ministry of Finance is going to halve the volume of daily purchases of yuan and gold within the framework of the budget rule, compared to April.
Secondly, exporters will sell foreign exchange earnings accumulated during the May holidays. Thirdly, the tough monetary policy of the Central Bank and the high key rate remain significant support for the ruble. So the decline on Wednesday to 91.95 rubles per dollar does not look like the beginning of a trend: rather, we are talking about a short-term movement of a speculative nature.
“The most important thing for the rate is the upper range: it is important not to go above 93.5-94.5,” notes financial analyst Sergei Drozdov. – And such fluctuations as the last one (May 8) do not have much significance. This is a normal market movement, although no one really understands its nature. The reasons for this are usually speculative, for example, closing positions before the long weekend. The ruble has always had a certain volatility in any exchange rate range; it rarely stood at attention for a long time. It is obvious that there are no truly serious, fundamental prerequisites for its strengthening. As well as for a collapse.”
At the same time, Drozdov argues, the authorities are doing everything in their power to ensure that the Russian currency does not rush to reach 98-100 rubles, otherwise it will be possible to say goodbye to the Central Bank’s goal of inflation at 4%. The consumer price index remains high largely due to the not very strong, to put it mildly, exchange rate of the ruble.
According to financial analyst Fedor Sidorov, today pro-inflationary factors rule the roost: first of all, a high level of imports (with limited exports) and domestic demand. The economy is still overheated, which in no way contributes to strengthening the position of the domestic currency.