Tubers were planted, and green manure grew
The Ministry of Agriculture has finally assessed the crop losses from the May frosts. According to the new minister Oksana Lut, crops were destroyed on an area of 830 thousand hectares. This is almost 1% of what was planted, since this year it is planned to sow 84.5 million hectares.
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The situation with weather anomalies was discussed at a meeting of the operational headquarters of the new Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev, who also oversees agriculture.
Department specialists, together with regional officials, continue to assess the damage to obtain reliable data. If in the first days of May a state of emergency was declared in three Russian regions — Voronezh, Lipetsk and Tambov regions — now several more subjects of the Federation have been added to them: Oryol, Volgograd, Saratov and a number of other regions.
How It has been reported more than once in recent weeks that farmers are determined to replant those areas where some crops have died, as well as to do everything possible in the fields where damaged crops can still be restored. Of course, all this will require additional costs, which, as you might guess, will have to be reimbursed to customers in the store starting in the fall…
Meanwhile, the SovEkon analytical center believes that the Ministry of Agriculture significantly underestimates losses as a result of the current situation. According to the center, losses of wheat alone could amount to almost 4 million tons worth 45 billion rubles. The analytical center lowered its forecast for the bread harvest from 89.6 to 85.7 million tons.
According to him, things are not going very well with the harvest. Firstly, this year it is planned to sow 0.3 million hectares less wheat. And secondly, the yield itself, unlike previous years, is predicted to be lower: instead of 3.03 tons per hectare — 2.93 tons.
Initially, together with the new regions, the Ministry of Agriculture planned to collect 147 million tons of grain. The 2022 harvest was a record one – 158 million tons. However, now the prospects for harvest are literally decreasing every day. In particular, the head of the new Kherson region said that the volume of the harvest this year, due to frosts, will be 30-50% lower than planned.
Nevertheless, analysts say that our fellow citizens have no reason to worry about their “daily bread”. Independent agricultural expert Alexander Korbut says that the needs of the domestic grain market are about 80 million tons per year. And with all natural disasters, Russia will collect at least 130-135 million tons. Plus here we need to add carryover residues: millions of tons of bread from the last harvest remain in warehouses and elevators. In general, more than enough!
It is more difficult with other crops. Thus, potatoes, our “second bread,” remained at a minimum price level throughout the fall and winter: 18-20 rubles per kilogram. Just these days, it has already jumped to 25-30 rubles; buyers are also noting the lower quality of the tubers.
How will the May bad weather affect potato plantings? Will they replant it and in what volumes?
“Such decisions are made by farm agronomists,” Tatyana Gubina, head of the Potato Union apparatus, answered us. — So far the situation is average. In one region, the consequences of frost are completely different. In some places the plantings were damaged, but in others they were not.
— Definitely do not replant the seeds in the place where potatoes have already been planted. Nothing good will come of this. There is already biomass there, which will begin to decompose and turn into a source of infection.
If the plantings are damaged, it is better to sow green manure in their place and be glad that the soil will rest for a year. And in the fall, buy tubers from farmers or in a store at a normal price.
— Everything will depend on the prices of new potatoes. We assume that there will be a shortage due to its volume. The situation will become clearer in two weeks, when the early harvest of vegetables comes from the southern regions, which are frozen.
Now there are interruptions with last year’s harvest, and prices have also gone up. On the one hand, this is a traditional spring increase. On the other hand, demand exceeds supply.
— There is such a possibility. But if farmers plant sowing seeds with good seeds and follow production technology, they will survive in these difficult conditions.