Since the beginning of 2024, the rise in prices for new buildings in the capital has amounted to 4%
On July 1, preferential and family mortgages will live long. This issue has been resolved and is no longer subject to discussion. The government does not want to invest huge amounts of money in the project, and the Central Bank is even more against it. In 2024, he does not predict reducing the key rate below 15%. Russians began to become hysterical and confused: is it worth buying a home while the preferential mortgage is still in effect, or is it better to wait a few months — maybe prices will collapse.
Experts told MK «What awaits the real estate market after the cancellation of the state support program and why developers have refused to reduce housing prices for many years.
In the absence of preferential programs, demand for housing will inevitably fall, which will push prices down. Neither developers nor apartment owners have any other way to maintain interest in the sale of apartments and private houses other than by reducing their prices.
“Prices will decrease in one way or another both in the primary and secondary housing, both in Moscow and in Russia as a whole,” says Pavel Lutsenko, general director of the federal portal “World of Apartments.” — Developers in Moscow will keep prices for new buildings at the current level as long as they have the endurance and resources in conditions of reduced demand after the cancellation of preferential mortgages. But then, apparently, they will still have to announce discounts and promotions, and then “cut” all other price tags. But we do not expect a sharp decline in prices, more than 5% by the end of the year.
The Moscow secondary market is more vulnerable, especially the old fund, which is already becoming cheaper. In general, regular market apartments may decline by 5-7% by the end of the year, the expert continues.
Throughout Russia, different trends operate in different cities, since the market conditions and conditions are different everywhere. But in general, prices for new buildings are expected to decline. The only place where growth can continue until the end of the year is undervalued cities where the price level is low compared to others, as well as those cities where there is no or little construction going on.
— Resales will become cheaper even more number of cities. It has already become more difficult to sell an apartment on the regular market, and owners have begun to withdraw their properties from sale. Often for rent, as its value is growing, says Pavel Lutsenko.
Yandex Real Estate Commercial Director Evgeny Belokurov agrees that both the demand for new buildings and buyers' options will shrink:
— Some Russians who were planning to purchase a standard two-room apartment will, after July 1, reorient themselves towards Euro-format housing of a smaller area or even a one-room apartment. It is also possible to abandon a more convenient territorial location: for example, people will begin to focus on the residential areas of Moscow or even the region: Krasnogorsk, Mytishchi, Reutov, Odintsovo.
Some Russians will prefer to either buy an apartment in the old stock , either build your own house, or rent an apartment until better times. The last strategy is especially relevant for people who are not willing to pay commercial loan rates of 150-200 thousand rubles per month, while rent costs 50-100 thousand.
Sales director of the federal company Etazhi, Sergei Zaitsev, says that the primary housing market in Russia is experiencing another wave of rush demand. The uncertainty that exists regarding the extension of mortgages with state support and possible changes in the terms of family mortgages fuels the demand for these mortgage programs.
If in the secondary market the number of applications for mortgage loans is 24% lower compared to the same period last year, then in the segment of new buildings — higher by 46%. As a result, the average cost per square meter on the primary housing market in Russia continues to grow by an average of 0.5% per month.
However, among large Russian cities there is a more noticeable increase in the average price per square meter on the primary market over the past month: Chelyabinsk, Novosibirsk, Rostov-on-Don, Omsk and Kazan — from 1.8% to 2.5%.
In Moscow, over the same period, the average price per square meter in new buildings increased by 0.2%, in St. Petersburg — by 1.6%.
A decrease in the availability of preferential mortgage programs in the primary market will, of course, lead to a transformation of demand in the housing market, continues Sergei Zaitsev. — Russians’ interest in apartments on the primary market will last, at best, until the fall of this year. The majority of people will begin to switch to finished housing, since in many cities the average price per square meter on the secondary market is lower than in new buildings. At the same time, on the secondary market there are often no additional costs for repairs, and you can move into your apartment immediately after purchase.
— Preferential mortgages are the only opportunity for most citizens to purchase housing, because the average market rates on loans without benefits and subsidies are 18%. This is a cut-off value, such a rate is protective in both the primary and secondary markets,” comments Irina Dobrokhotova, founder of BEST-Novostroy and bnMAP.pro.
Since the beginning of 2024, over four full months (January-April), the increase in prices for new buildings within old Moscow has amounted to 4% — the average price per square meter of new buildings for sale (all classes, all types — apartments and apartments) is 528 thousand rubles. Price growth has slowed down: for comparison, in 2023 the cost per square meter in Moscow new buildings increased by 21%.
“However, the preferential mortgage itself cannot be the factor that determines the price per square meter in new buildings,” says Irina Dobrokhotova. — Any project is being built in accordance with Federal Law-214, with the help of project financing, that is, a loan. To obtain project financing, a financial model of the project is provided to the bank, and the conditions are set out in it. Below a certain price, the developer will not be able to sell the new building, because then he will not be able to provide the cash flows specified in the financial model, which entails an increase in the project financing rate.
— Market mortgage rates remain prohibitive for borrowers, says Head of the Analytical Center “Real Estate Market Indicators” Oleg Repchenko. — Their reduction to an acceptable level is not expected in the near future.
It is unlikely that developers will be able to simply wait out the drop in demand at the old price tags, even with the financial cushion accumulated during last year’s rush: they will have to wait a long time, continues Oleg Repchenko. — According to the April forecast of the Central Bank, in 2024 the key rate will remain at 15-16%, and in 2025 it will decrease only to 10-12%. Acceptable rates for mortgage holders are no higher than 12% per annum. They are possible with a key interest rate below 10%, so you’ll have to forget about a cheap mortgage for now. This means that prices have no other way but down.