Climate changes affect the formation of destructive elements over the Atlantic
Climatologists have fears that conditions in 2024 will be very similar to 2005, when three destructive hurricanes were recorded. categories: “Katrina”, “Rita” and “Wilma”.
Experts say there is an 85 percent chance that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than normal. Seventeen to 25 storms are forecast, of which 8 to 13 will become hurricanes, including four to seven major hurricanes.
The forecast comes from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which also said that the probability of below-average activity is 5 percent.
Let us explain: the season lasts from June 1 to the end of November. Hurricanes rated Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale are classified as severe.
Forecasts call for record high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic to continue, fueling storm development. Meanwhile, a transition to La Niña (lower sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific) is expected in 2024, and NOAA suggests this could happen as early as June-August.
La Niña should reduce wind shear in the tropics, which means wind speed and direction change slightly with height—another factor that contributes to storm development.
2020 had the most named storms, but 2005 had more hurricanes — a year that brought three destructive Category 5 hurricanes: Katrina, Rita and Wilma.
Recall that in 2023, NOAA raised its May forecast from 12-17 named storms up to 14-21 in August. In the end, there were twenty named storms, the fourth most since 1950.
This was quite unusual as it occurred at a time when the Pacific Ocean was experiencing a strong El Niño event, which usually helps limit Hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Research shows that the number of tropical cyclones around the world is unlikely to increase due to climate change. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said that a warming world will likely lead to increased rainfall and maximum wind speeds.