The volume of counterfeit goods has increased, but the budget has lost 130 billion rubles
No matter how much the authorities fight against counterfeit tobacco products, its volumes are not decreasing, but increasing. And this is not the idle speculation of spiteful critics, but, alas, a statistical fact. According to the ANO “NNSC”, the share of illegal trade in tobacco products in 2023 reached 13.4% against 12.9% in 2022. What happens? We regularly increase excise taxes on tobacco, index the minimum price of a pack — and all this under the guise of fighting counterfeiting. And it continues to grow as if nothing had happened…
True, those in charge try to put on a good face even when the game is bad. For example, according to officials of the GIS MT (state information system for monitoring goods), there is indirect evidence that “the illegal import of such goods can be considered as tending to decrease.” Probably, this evidence is very indirect, since statistics refutes it.
It would seem that the shadowy businessmen of the tobacco market are surrounded from all sides. Markings have been introduced, cargo is inspected by customs with specially trained dogs. The Ministry of Finance introduced licenses… Another thing in the arsenal of anti-counterfeit fighters is registration of the equipment used to make cigarettes and strict control of each pack. To be sure, 15% of the cost of excise taxes is planned to be given to regional budgets — so that the subjects also fight against illegality.
The effect, as we see, is exactly the opposite. The volume of consumption of counterfeit cigarettes increased from 954 million packs in 2022 to 1.1 billion last year.
Russian smokers can celebrate — there is a billion!
Only the Russian budget is not happy about this “success”. It lost more than 130 billion rubles, which went unnoticed.
Oddly enough, the greatest contribution to the illegal tobacco trade is made by our friends — partners in the EAEU. For example, Belarus, in addition to sour cream and potatoes, also supplies illegal cigarettes — it occupies almost 85% of the total volume of this market. The remaining 15% is divided between Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
Surprisingly, as the volume of counterfeit goods increases, the volume of counterfeit goods seized by law enforcement agencies right at the border decreases. In 2023, compared to 2022, by as much as 32%. Although, in theory, everything should be exactly the opposite.
It turns out that counterfeit tobacco in our country, like the Italian mafia, is immortal? So, wasn’t it in vain that they declared a holy war on him, spending millions on various methods of struggle and control?
No, the responsible authorities do not stop there. Since April 1 of this year, tobacco products, along with daily bread and milk, have been included in the list of strategically important goods and resources. This makes it possible to further tighten the fight against smuggling. Over the past month and a half, customs services have already opened 11 criminal cases on illegal trafficking in tobacco products.
They even used “heavy artillery”: the use of navigation seals when transporting tobacco products within the EAEU countries. This agreement was ratified by all countries — block participants. True, not everyone is ready to use such an important toolkit yet. But Belarus (the main supplier of counterfeit goods) has already expressed consent. Only for some reason there is no hurry to implement it yet…
It is quite possible that in the fight against this evil we are putting the cart before the horse (obviously, the same one that a drop of nicotine kills) and we need to start somewhere else?
The life-and-death struggle against smoking began in our country back in 2013 — Naturally, with an increase in prices. During this period, the cost of a pack increased 3-4 times. It hardly needs to be said that the salaries of Russians, alas, are not growing at such a frantic pace.
This is why shadow circulation does not hang in the air, like cigarette smoke, but is widely marketed. This year alone, the excise tax rate on tobacco has increased by more than 300 rubles per kilogram. Where should a poor smoker go? After all, according to various sociological surveys, there are more than 30% of the total population in the country. Well, naturally, into the shade. Although it’s angry there, it’s cheap.
Now the weighted average price of cigarettes — about 240 rubles per pack. It turns out that a pack of cigarettes — it's almost like a bottle of vodka, the minimum official price of which is 300 rubles. Therefore, lower quality, but cheaper counterfeits always find their buyer. And a ready-made recipe for how to “strangle” it is not in the bud, as it turns out, in the arsenal of the authorities.
Following the statistics, we can only state for now: the current anti-tobacco policy has neither reduced counterfeiting nor helped the budget.