Experts told how many working citizens will pay a tax of 15%
To achieve greater fairness in taxation, the authorities plan to introduce a progressive scale, which will be organized in a stepwise manner, depending on the size of a citizen’s salary. It is proposed to take as the lower threshold of the progressive personal income tax scale the amount of two average monthly salaries in Russia, that is, at least 150 thousand rubles. This conclusion can be drawn from the full text of the recommendations of the State Duma Budget Committee on additional adjustments to the tax system.
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At the end of last year, the Ministry of Finance began work on changing the personal income tax scale and the income tax rate. The process noticeably accelerated after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s call for “a more equitable distribution of the tax burden,” sounded in his address to the Federal Assembly in February.
Let us recall that since 2001, Russia has established a single tax scale for everyone with a rate of 13%. It existed for 20 years. However, then, on the initiative of the President of Russia, a two-stage system was introduced. For citizens with incomes of less than 5 million rubles. per year the rate remained unchanged — 13%, and for the rest it increased to 15%.
But now the authorities have decided to slightly modernize this scheme. “It is important that the increase in the tax burden does not affect the vast majority of citizens,” emphasizes the recommendations published on May 26 on the State Duma website. “Therefore, after analyzing all the proposed options, it is recommended to set the lower threshold of the scale based on an income of at least twice the average monthly nominal wage in the Russian Federation.” According to Rosstat, in January the average monthly nominal salary in Russia was just over 75 thousand rubles, in February — over 78 thousand rubles, that is, the lower threshold of the progressive personal income tax scale will affect citizens receiving an income of more than 150 thousand rubles per month. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, in 2024 the average monthly salary should increase to 83.6 thousand rubles. Thus, the income of a person who will have to pay more than 13% of taxes next year, if the amendments are adopted, will have to be about 167.2 thousand rubles monthly, or about 2 million per year.
The proposed threshold for the progressive scale would benefit the economy while affecting relatively few people. As Freedom Finance Global leading analyst Natalya Milchakova recalled, from the introduction of an increased personal income tax rate of 15% on the income of the richest Russians, the budget received 7% more income from personal income tax in the first year of the experiment than before its implementation. And this despite the fact that the increased personal income tax rate affected no more than 2.5% of the total number of taxpayers. After “adjusting” the taxation system for individuals, the budget will most likely increase revenues from personal income tax by at least 10–15%. And this is without taking into account the expected increase in the profit tax rate, and taking it into account, the growth of budget tax revenues will be even greater. That is, we will talk about additional budget revenues of at least a trillion rubles.
At the same time, the innovation will affect, if we focus on Rosstat data, a very small number of compatriots. Every two years, this department evaluates who receives what salaries. The analysis was last carried out in April 2023. “If we rely on this document, then the change in tax legislation will affect 3.9% of Russians for sure, and about 13% will be in question,” says Anastasia Khrustaleva, senior vice president of Fontvielle Investment Company. Thus, the promise of Finance Minister Siluanov that the absolute majority of Russians will not be affected by tax changes will be fulfilled “with reserve.”
At the same time, the authorities announced that if the innovation is adopted, taxes will also be directed to specific purposes — in particular , for social national projects announced by the president, the expert emphasized. All this will have a positive impact on the economy, and therefore, ultimately on the well-being of all Russians, regardless of the amount of taxes assessed to them.