Expensive oil, tax period, sale of foreign currency earnings
In the last week of spring, the ruble, unexpectedly for many, took a course towards strengthening. Just a couple of days ago, the dollar on the stock exchange was worth more than 90 rubles, and the euro — 98. And by the end of the day on Tuesday, May 28, it was already 88 and 96 and kopecks, respectively. What happens to the national currency? How long will it take to go on the offensive and what course should we expect in the summer? In search of answers to these questions, MK turned to experts.
The question of how long the ruble strengthening trend will last is of interest not only to financial analysts, but also to ordinary citizens. After all, a stable ruble is also a hope for stable prices.
And so far, our national currency gives reason for optimism. Overall, over the past six weeks, the dollar has fallen by as much as 5.8 rubles.
Who benefits from this? Of course, buyers and domestic importers. And economists who think big are not very happy about this strengthening. The budget, they say, benefits from a weak ruble.
Where is the golden mean that would suit everyone?
Some analysts are confident that the trend towards strengthening our national currency will be quite long, since its main reason is the difficulties in making international payments. Dollars and euros accumulate within the country; it is not possible to spend them on import purchases on a large scale, as before. And since problems with international payments have come to us for a long time, the ruble will also be relatively stable against the “sweet couple” dollar-euro.
The seemingly friendly banks of China and Turkey also contributed to this stability. Recently, their financial structures have begun to more carefully check transactions and request many additional documents, which to a certain extent has slowed down trade.
However, Oleg Kalmanovich, chief analyst at Neomarkets, believes that one of the most important factors in the “offensive” is The ruble is a decline in the dollar on the world foreign exchange market. “The main reason for this is the expectation of a faster and more significant reduction in interest rates by the Federal US Reserve System,” he explains. – At the beginning of May, when traditional statistics on the American labor market were published, negative trends were observed. High local interest rates are putting pressure on the US economy.
According to the analyst, the current key level for purchases and sales – 92.5 rubles per dollar. While the price is below this level, the downside targets are at 87.5 and 85.
According to BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov, the ruble is strengthening due to several factors. In particular, on May 28, the period for paying large taxes begins, which in turn spurs demand for ruble liquidity.
Also, an important role in the strengthening of the national currency is played by the requirement for the mandatory sale of export foreign currency earnings, which is valid until the end of April 2025.
Another reason for the strengthening of the ruble, the analyst calls the strict conditions of the Central Bank’s monetary policy. It seems that the regulator has no plans to “loosen the screws.” Moreover, in early June, at the next meeting of the board of directors of the Central Bank, a further increase in the key rate is expected.
In addition, the ruble is also helped by fairly high prices for oil, which still remains Russia’s main export commodity. A barrel of Brent costs $83. We also cannot discount the fact that the dollar has weakened its position on world markets.
All this together led to a rather unexpected reversal of the ruble towards strengthening. How long will this trend last? As for forecasts for the future exchange rate of the ruble, the expert believes that players on the Moscow Exchange are trying to return the dollar exchange rate to the corridor of 87.35-87.65 rubles. Passing this zone can open the way to the level of 84 rubles per dollar.