Analyst Belyaev: “In order to pay a lot on deposits, you need to take out more for the loan”
Without waiting for the Central Bank to increase the key rate, many of the country’s largest banks have already begun to raise rates on deposits and savings accounts. In some cases, such rates reach 19% per annum; the profit from investments on ruble deposits can be considered unheard of. Do you need to rush headlong with your hard-earned money, or does the promise of record profits on deposits carry financial risks?
The next decision on the key rate of the Central Bank is expected this coming Friday, June 7. Despite the fact that this figure has been kept at a very high level of 16% for a long time (which is twice the official inflation), many experts are confident that a new increase will follow — to at least 17%. Recently, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, said that she does not see economic trends for sustainable disinflation. Demand growth continues to outpace supply, which is the source of inflationary pressure. Therefore, the period of tight monetary policy (that is, raising the key rate) in Russia will continue.
Following an increase in the key rate by a comparable amount, deposit rates will increase, which will further increase the attractiveness of ruble savings. Apparently, many banks, including the largest ones, did not wait for June 7 and acted ahead of the curve, raising interest rates on deposits from the first day of summer to 18-19%. Real competition for the client!
However, you should not fall into euphoria. Firstly, the rate increase is expected to be short-term — up to 6 months and is not expected for all types of deposits. And secondly, in order to place savings at a good interest rate, some large banks set a high threshold for the minimum deposit amount. Not everyone can scrape together that much money.
There is also bad news for bank clients. Interest on loans will also increase following the key rate — so it’s better to borrow from banks right now.
MK asked a specialist — Candidate of Economic Sciences, financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev — to evaluate the pros and cons of the current situation with bank interest .
— It makes sense, since a completely unique situation has developed. The deposit rate is much higher than annual inflation, even if we take household and consumer inflation. If someone has savings, then there is nothing to think about. Most likely, these will be short-term deposits. It is not in the interests of the bank to “recharge” for a long time; it needs to quickly attract money to quickly solve its needs. But short-term loans have their own charm. They will not be caulked in a bank for several years when they cannot be used.
— What is, say, 18% per annum? If from 100 thousand rubles — 18 thousand. The money is not very big, but for many Russians it is a quite significant increase in income. What if the account has not a hundred thousand, but millions? There are many such investors in our country. And significant sums will immediately smile at them — just as if they fell from the sky.
17-18% per annum by banking standards is a lot. It is unlikely that you can earn more with any other financial instrument today.
— They also have their “advantages”. In this way they strengthen their resource base. And this has a positive impact on their financial stability. They accumulate liabilities, which must counteract assets, that is, payments on their own obligations. This is the sustainability of banks. That is why they have now launched a fight for clients and for attracting resources.
— With an increase in the key rate, consumer loans and mortgages will become more expensive. In general, the entire credit field. In order to pay increased interest on deposits, banks must have sources of income — these same loans. After all, in order to pay a lot on deposits, you need to take more from someone for a loan.
As a result, increased rates may result in deferred risks for banks. For some period of time they will be able to maintain their financial stability by expanding their liabilities. However, they must also pay their obligations. There will come a time when the credit source will dry up, dry up, and will not provide the necessary income. And banks simply will not be able to meet financial stability standards. I do not exclude that as a result, some credit organizations will lose their licenses.
In macroeconomic terms, we can say that with an increase in deposit rates, it will become more difficult to place securities on the market. Why invest, for example, in stocks that you don’t know what kind of income they will bring, if banks guarantee you a 17-18% return on a silver platter?