At the Sber business breakfast, authorities and businesses talked about the importance of trust and the development of artificial intelligence
The Russian economy may in the future face two “black swans,” the head of Sberbank warned at SPIEF 2024 German Gref. The first is the pandemic, and the second is geopolitical tensions. But there is still a way to help the economy. At the Sber business breakfast, the chairman of the bank's board said that technology can add 4-6% of GDP by 2030.
Photo: Sber Press Service
“I think there are two 'black swans'” They’re definitely on our table today,” — said Gref. The first, he said, is the global risk of a global pandemic, since most experts estimate it to be quite high. The second potential risk, he said, is geopolitical. The credit institution came to these conclusions based on a survey of analysts and business representatives. It is these risks that Sber's interlocutors identified as the highest.
Under the “black swan” usually imply a difficult to predict and rare event that may have further consequences. This definition was coined by the American scientist, trader and economist Nassim Taleb.
Thinking about the difficulties that one might encounter is an effective model of behavior. However, the Russian economy does not live by forecasts alone. The country faces specific tasks that must be solved now.
President Putin has set the goal of «becoming the fourth economy in the world.» The World Bank has updated its statistics and has already raised Russia to fourth place in terms of purchasing power parity. Germany and Japan are breathing down our necks.
If Russia does not increase its economic growth rate, then by 2030 Brazil and Indonesia will take our place. “In order not to lose fourth place, economic growth must be at least 3% per annum,” Gref said at the Sberbank business breakfast.
The chairman of the bank's board said that the Russian economic growth model is simple and primitive. The scheme looks something like this: budget spending grows, leading to enterprises raising wages, as a result people become wealthier and receive loans, as a result the economy grows at a very good pace — 5.4%. But there are some nuances here.
«This model of economic development is very vulnerable. It’s primitive,” Gref noted. — There are no more goods. They don't start producing anymore. Prices are rising. Labor productivity is falling. Import is limited. Also, Russia has never had such low unemployment (2.6%) and such capacity utilization (81%). The economy is working to the limit.”
The main word of the 21st century – technologies, they can add 4-6% of GDP by 2030, said the head of Sberbank. According to him, many companies are implementing artificial intelligence, and the results are impressive. He also believes that entrepreneurs should reduce their costs and increase labor productivity, otherwise Russia will no longer have such rates of economic growth.
In turn, the head of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes Andrei Makarov at a business breakfast in within the framework of the SPIEF, he said that in order to ensure economic growth, it is necessary to change the attitude towards people, the attitude towards business.
«How will Russia become the 4th economy in the world in terms of purchasing power parity? We have been fourth for three years now (Russia has become the fourth largest economy in the world in terms of purchasing power parity, as follows from updated World Bank data)? Why didn't anyone notice this? Because it doesn't affect anything. This has nothing to do with the quality of life and the economy. We need to talk about the level of well-being. We need to talk about the dignity of people, about trust,” he emphasized.