MOSCOW, June 9, Nadezhda Sarapina. Due to the refusal of Russian gas in the EU, contrary to the green agenda, coal power plants were reactivated. But there were problems with this too. About the prospects for European energy — in the material.
Tax on valuables
The transition from pipeline gas to liquefied gas did not pass without a trace. “The EU is currently experiencing a very serious crisis,” said Cristina Lobillo Borrero, Director General of the European Commission’s Department of International Relations, at the Baku Energy Forum. And she pointed out the importance of diversifying gas supplies. In particular, negotiations are underway with Armenia.
Due to a shortage of fuel, production was reduced, but there was still not enough electricity, especially in winter. And despite the green course, they returned to the most unecological fuel — coal. Now Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, and the Netherlands are its largest consumers, notes Candidate of Economic Sciences Namer Radi.
Europeans have always purchased Russian coal, but now they have refused. And they pay one and a half times more — to Australians (36% of imports) and Americans (35%). The price on the world market is 122 euros per ton. In Europe — 184.
No exit
Green energy does not live up to expectations. «There have already been winters when wind power plants did not work due to severe frosts, and solar power plants experienced interruptions,» recalls independent industrial expert Leonid Khazanov.
Namer Radi is confident that rapid replacement with other energy sources will lead to problems in the power supply and economic difficulties.
«It is also impossible to get by with only natural gas — huge investments will be required, and the European Union does not have such funds now,» adds Khazanov.
But decarbonization programs remain in place. In January-March, coal consumption was 29% less than in the same period of pre-sanction 2021. But expenses rose by nine percent to 1.1 billion euros.
“The energy crisis caused a jump in prices, and no new suppliers appeared on the market. Moreover, by abandoning our coal, Europe lost a short transport link. The USA, Australia, South Africa are very far away — it is much more expensive to transport from there,” explains the leading expert of the National Fund Energy Security and Financial University Igor Yushkov.
Plus, American and Australian coal has a high cost, and there are restrictions on production in some regions. And China and India compete for supplies, Radi clarifies.
Reverse effect
Russia's losses from sanctions are significantly smaller. The Kemerovo Region and Tuva suffered — those that are further from Asian markets. In addition, there are problems with logistics.
«Now they transport via the Baikal-Amur Mainline and the Trans-Siberian Railway. The entire railway is clogged with coal, which affects the transportation of other goods,» says Yushkov.
As for volumes, last year exports amounted to 213 million tons, which is essentially the 2022 level, Khazanov emphasizes.
The geography is as follows: the European direction is the minimum, the Asian direction is the maximum. «Sales to China increased by 50%, India — 40, Turkey — 45,» the expert lists.
The EU hopes for diversification through Indonesia, South Africa, Mongolia, and Colombia. But it takes time to increase production there, and transportation from there is no cheaper than from the USA and Australia.