Aggressive promotion of the “green agenda” actually means declaring energy war on the majority of the world’s population; overcoming inequality is impossible without reliable supplies of oil and gas. In this regard, the falling demand for electric vehicles is indicative, which demonstrates the lack of planning and haste with which Western countries initially approached the electrification of transport. Overall, global oil demand will continue to grow. Such theses were voiced in the key report of Rosneft Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin, which he presented at the Energy Panel at the XXVII SPIEF.
Photo: SPIEF 2024.
Demand for electricity will continue to grow at the expense of developing countries that have yet to overcome energy poverty. Thus, today more than two of the eight billion people on Earth still use open fires for domestic needs, and over 700 million people live without access to electricity.
“The gap in energy consumption between poor and rich countries is striking. For example, per capita consumption in India, where about 20% of the world's population lives, is eleven times lower than in the United States. In general, in the so-called G7 countries, where less than 10% of the world's population lives, energy consumption per capita is almost three times higher than the world average,” – Sechin said.
Moreover, it is in the developing countries of Asia and Africa that the greatest population growth is observed and, as a result, a rapid increase in the need for energy resources. It is obvious that in this situation, reducing global consumption of fossil resources would automatically mean not only maintaining, but also exacerbating the problem of hunger and energy poverty.
“Thus, the aggressive promotion of the “green agenda” actually means declaring an energy war on the majority of the Earth’s population,” – the speaker noted.
In his opinion, overcoming energy inequality is impossible without reliable supplies of oil and gas. In turn, giving up oil will mean giving up the modern way of life; for many countries, increased oil consumption means access to the benefits of civilization.
«Green» the agenda persistently shows its ineffectiveness. For example, contrary to optimistic forecasts, electric vehicles are not a panacea for all environmental problems. At the moment, the policy of subsidizing electric vehicles is being reviewed. The IEA estimates that by 2035, the transition to electric vehicles could result in a $110 billion shortfall in motor fuel taxes that would go towards maintaining roads and improving transport infrastructure.
Sechin recalled that to compensate for the shortfall in budget revenues, a number of countries, including the UK, New Zealand, Israel and most North American states, have already begun introducing taxes on electric vehicles and hybrid cars, and Germany recently announced the end of benefits and the accelerated elimination of subsidies.
At the same time, demand for oil in the world continues to grow, despite expectations of the so-called “peak oil”. According to OPEC's forecast, primary oil demand will increase by almost 20%, to 116 million barrels per day by 2045. Oil will continue to occupy about 30% of the global energy balance.
At the same time, developing countries will be the main drivers of oil consumption in the coming decades. By 2030, demand growth in this group of countries should collectively account for 95% of global consumption growth. The greatest increase in oil demand is expected in Asian countries, which are Russia's main trading partners.
Igor Sechin paid special attention to India: “India has achieved significant economic success in recent years. Since 2010, energy demand in India has grown by 45%, making the country the world's third largest energy consumer.
He also noted that India is projected to continue its strong economic growth over the next five years and will become one of the three largest economies in the world with a GDP of $5 trillion, and by 2050 it will overtake the United States in terms of economic size. India's final energy consumption is set to grow by 90% by 2050 – this is one of the highest growth rates in the world.