Expert Sergei Markedonov: “The West may be offended and repeat our past mistakes”
Geopolitical surprises can sometimes be pleasant. Ever since the second coming of Eduard Shevardnadze to the throne in Tbilisi in the 1990s, Moscow has become accustomed to the idea that Georgia has migrated to the Western political camp. And the only difference between the local political forces is that some – like the party of the current shadow leader of the country Bidzina Ivanishvili – are moderate conductors of the Western line, while others – like the party of Mikheil Saakashvili – are rabid. And here's a surprise! The official authorities of Tbilisi suddenly found themselves in a state of conflict with the USA and the EU. In the first part of his interview published in the previous issue of MK, the best Russian expert on the Caucasus Sergei Markedonov spoke about the radical change in relations in the Baku-Moscow-Yerevan triangle. And here is his explanation of what is happening now in Georgia and around Georgia.
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— If we talk about Ivanishvili and Saakashvili, then Saakashvili — this is a person who did value choice in favor of the West. «Georgian Dream» Ivanishvili always perceived the West as something instrumental, and not value-based. Ivanishvili — this is still businessman a person who knows how to calculate risks, who is not prone to some kind of empty pathos or pathos at all as as such. This does not mean, by the way, that Georgia has turned away from the West towards Russia. The recent statement by Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze about the inevitable inclusion in composition of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia and about joining the “European family” together with the Abkhaz Ossetian brothers. peoples eloquently says that this topic is for Tbilisi not closed. Of course, Moscow in Georgia may now unexpectedly get lucky. The West may be offended and repeat our past mistakes regarding Georgia: alienate this country, thus abandoning Georgia into the arms of Russia — she just doesn't have there will be no other choice.
— This is a matter of domestic policy. We see that in Georgia, since about 2011, two forces have been fighting: the “United National Movement”; Saakashvili and «Georgian Dream». When Ivanishvili replaced Saakashvili in power, Western political strategists coined such a term — “cohabitation”, coexistence. But coexistence did not work out. In fact, the “Georgian Dream” began to pursue a policy of reorganization in relation to Saakashvili’s National Movement. This was an easy reorganization — not in the format total rolling everything under the asphalt. But, nevertheless, look: Saakashvili — criminal cases. His “gray eminence” Vano Merabishvili was in prison and was released. Nikanor Melia, who not long ago left Saakashvili’s movement and now claims to be a new third force, but was a “nationalist” in the past, was subject to criminal prosecution. A number of Georgian politicians were forced emigrate. Ivanishvili understands: today his «Dream» popular, and tomorrow — It may turn out that it’s not very good anymore. And here the question arises like in an old Soviet film: either go to the prosecutor or go to power. Therefore, it is better to immediately remove the prosecutor’s perspective. Hence the law on foreign influence. It is written based on a similar Australian law and is generally quite lenient. Like, guys, open up your accounting. That's all, actually.
— The Georgian opposition fears that this will be only the first step towards its stigmatization and complete exclusion from the political field. At the same time today Georgian official faces seem to wink at the West: we are not against you. We just want to remove “scumbags” and we will continue to be with you work. But The West does not agree with this. West fears that Georgia's departure from models of pluralism — namely pluralism, not democracy — will lead to the establishment of a tougher more personalistic management system. And this, in turn, will mean that the West will have less opportunity to interfere and influence in including your choice foreign policy course — not necessarily pro-Russian, but it is enough that it is not anti-Russian. Today, for the West, being anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian is not enough — it’s already bad!
— The «Mishists» — those whom I call collective Saakashvili have a powerful anti-rating. These are people who are either loved or hated — without midline. In his recent speech by former prime minister and official leader of the Georgian Dream party Irakli Garibashvili divided in the protest the youth wing and the “Mishist” wing. Youth, they say, we will understand and forgive. But these radicals — people who don't shake hands. From the authorities there is an attempt to split the protest, which may well succeed. The Georgian opposition suffers from chronic problems of non-negotiability. Now Salome Zurabishvili, the opposition president, is such a special Georgian political know-how last decade — called for signing a Charter of Action to return Georgia to the “correct” European way.» It would seem that she has an obvious ally in this regard — former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia, a politician offended by Ivanishvili, who left the Georgian Dream. and created own association “For Georgia”. But he refused to sign the charter. Why? She, s his point of view, neutralizes the significance of the upcoming parliamentary elections. What are his real concerns? I think it’s this: what if we perform well in the elections, and we will be judged not by our own results, but through the prism of the Charter. Even in the opposition there may be people who at some point will falter and say: our “red line” here, not three times later quarter.
— These clashes already exist in fact. Georgia, like Armenia, is a country that grew up in protest, created by protests. This won't surprise anyone. This is more like the norm for her. Moreover, the authorities in Tbilisi have learned to adapt to street protests. Protests in Georgia have been very active since the “night of Gavrilov”. A This is 2019 for a second. All five years one way or another, some elections are held, something happens all the time. But The authorities quite skillfully stop this protest activity.
— A lot will depend on whether some kind of third comes out the strength to perform and how it will turn out. It may turn out that a number of small parties will enter parliament. They can «lean» to the movement of Saakashvili and form some kind of coalition. As for Ivanishvili, there is no information that he has a lot of property in the United States. This is an important point that makes it less vulnerable to pressure from the West. Another important point: he understands that the West will no longer talk to him, that in the eyes of the USA and the EU he is a played card. At least if things continue to go the way they are now. I repeat, the West was very offended by him! Thus, Ivanishvili has only one option left — current rate.