Experts predict a decline after June
As the date for the abolition of preferential mortgages approaches, the activity of buyers in the primary housing market has increased sharply. Many of those who, for various reasons, postponed the purchase of new apartments are now trying to get loans on preferential terms. Developers, despite the excitement in sales offices, try not to raise prices. Many, on the contrary, are ready to provide customers with discounts and installment plans. According to experts, after the June boom in the primary housing market there will be a decline in July and August.
Photo: Daria Atamanchuk
As told by «MK» Sales Director of the company «Etazhi» Sergey Zaitsev, in May the demand for mortgages with state support increased by 40% compared to April and by 89% — relative to May last year. Interest in family mortgages is also growing, but more subdued — at the level of 3-5% relative to April. The average cost of 1 square meter on the primary market in Russia in May showed the most significant monthly increase since the beginning of the year, increasing by 1.2%. Most noticeable is the average price per square meter. over the past month increased in new buildings in Krasnodar (+4.7%), Moscow (+3.7%) and St. Petersburg (+2.9%), decreased most in Yekaterinburg (– 1.7%), Omsk (– 1.6%) and Chelyabinsk (– 0.5%).
The average cost of primary real estate in the 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 cities with a population of over a million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) increased by 0.4% in May, reaching 168.7 thousand rubles by the beginning of June. per sq. m,” the head of “CIAN.Analytics” calculated. Alexey Popov. According to him, despite the increase in the average sales period, developers do not risk significantly indexing prices.
Based on the results of May, in new buildings in old Moscow the average price of 1 sq. m. m is at the level of 411.6 thousand rubles. (+4.7% since the beginning of the year, +17.7% for the year). In New Moscow there is 1 “square” on average it costs 245.5 thousand rubles. (+1.2% since the beginning of the year, +7.1% for the year).
— While the preferential mortgage is in effect, the new building market is in an active phase, but on July 1 the program closes, — reported «MK» director of the «New buildings» department INCOM-Real Estate Valery Kochetkov. — And then it is unclear whether it will be canceled completely or modified, but it is obvious that the conditions for purchasing housing will become more stringent. Many are trying to get a loan at current rates, creating a rush in the market. In April and May, demand is 16% higher than in the entire first quarter of this year. And we will see the peak in June.
Now developers' marketers are actively working on programs to maintain demand after July 1. Already today, installment plans from six months to two years are actively offered with the opportunity to switch to a mortgage in the future. Perhaps there will be programs where the developer will be willing to compensate part of the interest rate on the mortgage. In July, there will certainly be many different offers that will prevent a strong drop in demand. “But the period of adaptation and exploration of new opportunities for acquiring new buildings may take 3-4 weeks. And just at this time, sales may fall by 15-20% with a subsequent recovery in time for new business activity, which, as a rule, begins in mid-August,” — Kochetkov noted.
In his opinion, fluctuations in demand now do not particularly affect the cost of primary housing. Prices do not depend on sales, as was the case before, when during periods of low demand developers reduced them to attract buyers. Today the model is different — banks issue loans for construction projects using project financing. Further, with good sales and filling of escrow accounts, the interest rate on the loan decreases. When demand is low, developers do not raise money in escrow accounts, thereby paying high interest on project financing, which is reflected in the price per square meter.
In Moscow, according to Kochetkov, one interesting trend has gained momentum — despite a slight increase in the median offer price, the average purchase budget in May decreased by 18% due to an increase in the number of transactions with small-sized studio apartments. This is a consequence of restrictions on the minimum housing area: since May 15, developers in Moscow will not be given permission to build houses if the project includes 1-room apartments or studios with dimensions of less than 28 square meters. m. But according to previously received permits, they continue to be built, and objects with a footage of 20-22 “squares” are in great demand — now it is 73% higher than it was before the restriction was introduced.
As Kochetkov believes, the “entrance ticket” is the capital market of new buildings for buyers will soon rise in price by about 20%, or even 30%. The fact is that the minimum dimensions of apartments in new projects will increase, and the remaining micro-studios will also increase in price. In this regard, demand from regional clients aimed at relatively inexpensive housing will most likely decrease. With the loss of the opportunity to purchase the most affordable small-sized apartments in Moscow, some potential buyers are reorienting to the Moscow region, where there is still no ban on building housing smaller than 28 square meters. m.
According to Zaitsev’s forecast, in June the activity of buyers in the primary housing market may increase by another 20-25%. However, there are risks that in the second half of the month some banks will reduce the volume of approval of new loans, as they will process the issuance of mortgages that were approved earlier. The expert does not expect a collapse in prices for new buildings, since much, in his opinion, depends on the cost of construction, the availability of credit funds and their cost for the developers themselves, prices for land plots for construction, inflation and other factors.
“Most likely, with a significant limitation of preferential programs, we will see a stabilization of prices in the primary housing market. For those who are interested in buying a home, it makes sense to have time to apply for a preferential mortgage before July 1, since there is a risk of a significant decrease in the availability of credit funds for purchasing a home in the medium term,” — concluded Zaitsev.