Expert Andrei Loboda: “It is not profitable for Moscow to save the collapsing economy of Ukraine at its own expense”
EU officials, who had gotten into the habit of joyfully reporting that they had learned to do without Russian gas, suddenly became thoughtful about preparing for the coming winter, about how to fill your storage. The problem is that Ukraine does not intend to extend the transit of Russian gas to Europe in 2025. European officials themselves seem to officially support this position. But now they have come to the realization that the Old World may well face bitter frosts without Russian energy resources.
The contract for gas transit to Europe through Ukraine, as is known, ends on December 31, 2024. And Kyiv does not plan to renew it with Gazprom. The reasons are primarily political. It turns out that Kyiv is pumping enemy gas through its own land — although Square receives about $1 billion a year for these services.
The European Union is also outraged by this order. In fact, he completely takes the side of Ukraine; for Brussels, Moscow is the same enemy. But it also buys energy from its enemy. This is also wrong, European officials believe. In addition, the European Union is trying in every possible way to reduce Russia’s income from the export of hydrocarbons, but at the same time, it turns out that it is actively purchasing them itself.
In general, until relatively recently, the EU supported Ukraine’s determination to abandon the transit of Russian gas through its territory starting next year. But this unanimity disappeared when Brussels began to think: how to prepare for winter, how to fill their storage facilities? Ukraine (at least for now) firmly stands its ground; it does not want to deal with Russian gas. How else can he get to Europe?
In general, our enemies, in order to maintain a balance of both political and economic interests, have to invent all sorts of clever schemes. The following is currently being considered: European companies buy “blue fuel” not in Russia, but in Azerbaijan. Then they transport it through Ukraine, but… through a Russian gas pipeline.
In general, to Riga through Gorlovka — as they said in the times of friendship of peoples. It turns out that not only Russians can create difficulties for themselves and then heroically overcome them. European officials are also great masters in this area.
According to the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries, in January-November 2023 alone, supplies of Russian pipeline gas to the EU decreased by 60%, to 24 billion cubic meters. The losses of EU countries from the reduction in Russian gas supplies this year alone amounted to about 700 billion euros. And by the end of 2024 they will reach a trillion.
Negotiations on a new supply scheme are still at an early stage, because the winter cold in Europe is still far away. Events will probably begin to speed up by the fall. However, since gas in this case should go through the Russian pipeline, an important question is: will the proposal suit our country? After all, by agreeing to pump someone else’s gas, the domestic energy industry loses part of its income. Will Moscow support such a deal?
MK asked experts about this.
— It is unlikely that such an option will be beneficial to our country, — says BitRiver communications director, economist Andrey Loboda. — The European Union wants to sit on the pipeline and not have anything explode. And the latter is very likely to happen, given the degree of wear and tear of the Ukrainian GTS.
According to the expert, Azerbaijan may be offered a deal — to sell gas to Russia, and Russia, through its infrastructure, can supply it to China or the domestic market. For Azerbaijan and Russia, such a deal would be mutually beneficial. Russia has already redirected gas export flows to China and Turkey. It is possible that Moscow and Ankara could agree to transport Russian gas to Europe through Turkish Stream, but not through Ukraine. Finally, there is the Russian-Belarusian gas pipeline Yamal-Europe, but it is idle due to EU sanctions. If Brussels were really interested in gas supplies through Russian territory, we could remember about this gas pipeline.
— However, the EU does not want to admit the obvious fact: Russia will not save the already doomed Ukrainian gas transportation system at its own expense. Moreover, if the European Union even hypothetically refuses Russian pipeline gas, says Andrei Loboda.
“A company that simply provides its infrastructure for pumping foreign gas from one country to another, of course, can lose money,” says Oleg Kalmanovich, chief analyst at Neomarkets. — The lion's share of the proceeds will go only to servicing the gas pipeline. This option might be of interest to Gazprom: it is always better to use the infrastructure and get money for it than not to use it. And Gazprom, which recorded losses at the end of the year, really needs money now. However, due to the acute geopolitical situation, the reluctance of the parties to discuss a deal with the owner of the gas pipeline, as well as the incident with Nord Stream, this option seems unlikely to me.
At the same time, the expert notes that Europe is trying to work out the import option gas through the infrastructure of Russia — a country with which it verbally breaks off all relations. As a result, energy prices rise, and, accordingly, goods, production go bankrupt or move from Europe. A plan to use liquefied natural gas from Russia (deliveries are still ongoing), the UAE and the US failed due to high costs, insufficient renewable energy capacity, and insufficient nuclear capacity in France, Belgium and Hungary.
In addition, Europe has recently experienced an increase in gas prices. It, as Kalmanovich explains, was associated with interruptions in the supply of blue fuel from Norway, which took a dominant place after the ban on Russian gas in the Old World.