For those who have dollars stored under their pillow, it is better not to do anything
One of the main questions that now torments Russians is what to do now, after the “expulsion” of toxic currencies from the exchange , what will happen with the ruble exchange rate? And what about savings in dollars and euros — who, of course, has them? We asked financial analyst Sergei Drozdov to answer these questions.
— Such risks — sanctions against the Moscow Exchange and the National Clearing Center (NCC) — existed back in March 2022, immediately after the start of the SVO. Now, I believe, the Central Bank was more or less prepared for this situation; for it it did not come as a bolt from the blue. This, of course, is not entirely good for you and me, because we are used to looking at currency quotes online. But today's dynamics show that the ruble is strengthening against both the dollar and the euro. And in relation to the Chinese yuan it’s generally 2%.
— Today I would not advise Russians to do anything at all. We need time to see how this story with sanctions and their circumvention will develop further.
— It’s funny: some banks today sell dollars for 200 rubles. I will say this: they made a big mistake by setting such a course. The calculation is made on panic among the population — on the fact that people will run to buy dollars, assuming that “green” will become even more expensive. In the spring of 2022, many also bought toxic currency for 110-120 rubles, and in the summer, when the ruble strengthened twice, they bitterly regretted it.
— Only wizards with magic balls can answer such a question. Judging by the abundance of forecasts, there are many of them in our country. Remember, they predicted that immediately after the presidential elections the ruble would collapse and soar to 100-120 per dollar. And now they can predict something similar.
— I believe that next week. Over the weekend, the hotheads in the banks will cool down a little. Today there is a “crooked course” — Central Bank regulation has not yet come into full force.
— The exchange rate that will be formed outside the exchange will be disadvantageous for importers and exporters. But this is not critical yet.
— I don’t think that a significant part of the population keeps dollars and euros on deposit. Since 2022, such deposits were first “frozen”, then unfavorable rates were introduced on them, in some places even negative… Most likely, such savings are hidden under the pillow. And those who have them, in my opinion, don’t need to do anything: no one in Russia prohibits the circulation of toxic currencies.
— What’s the point? As I already said, the ruble is now strengthening, it’s just that banks don’t rearrange price tags. It should be taken into account that banks now have a low foreign currency purchase rate, even lower than a week earlier. And a high selling rate.
— Why on earth? The ruble is strengthening, nothing special has happened for food prices. Now there is no need to look at the exchange rates in banks. They are just trying to take advantage of the situation. But we already went through this in 2022. And nothing bad happened…