“Some zealous banks raised rates to 120 rubles per dollar”
On June 12, the US Treasury imposed sanctions against the Moscow Exchange and the National Clearing Center (NCC), which is an intermediary for conducting currency transactions on the site. Restrictive measures also affected the National Settlement Depository (NSD). The Moscow Exchange has already announced that from June 13 it will no longer conduct trading in dollars and euros. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation reminded that transactions in other currencies will take place as usual, and reminded about the operation of the over-the-counter market for transactions in dollars and euros. How the life of the country and its citizens will change after the introduction of such harsh sanctions, MK found out from the head of the analytical department of the BKF bank Maxim Osadchy.
— Sanctions against the Moscow Exchange, NCC and NSD are a strong blow to our financial market. Exchange trading in dollars and euros will cease on June 13. Meanwhile, for example, in May, citizens purchased 107.4 billion rubles worth of currency on the foreign exchange market, while through the largest banks — only 71.5 billion rubles. True, not only dollars and euros, but also yuan.
— Sanctions against the Moscow Exchange and NCC have been expected since September 2022. Then, after the announcement of partial mobilization on September 21, the non-cash dollar weakened sharply due to the fact that everyone wanted to get rid of it, expecting these sanctions, which were never introduced. It’s hard to believe, but at that time the exchange rate was approaching 50 rubles per dollar. At the same time, the cash exchange rate remained above 60 rubles per dollar.
Since sanctions against the Moscow Exchange and NCC had been expected for almost two years, the Russian market had enough time to prepare and minimize the damage from them. Moreover, from the very beginning of the Northern Military District there was an active process of de-dollarization and de-euroization of the Russian economy. On the Russian non-cash currency market, non-cash dollars and euros have already been largely replaced by the yuan.
— The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has already explained that to determine the official exchange rates of the US dollar and euro to the ruble, the Bank of Russia will use bank reports and information coming from digital platforms of over-the-counter trading.
— Already now The bulk of sales of foreign currency earnings are carried out in yuan. So the day is not far when 100% of sales revenue will be in Chinese currency. But it is possible that something will remain for the share of the Iranian rial and the Afghan Afghani.
— Where will they now trade non-cash dollars and euros?
— Accordingly, outside the exchange. Over-the-counter trading in dollars and euros is intensifying.
—The main blow of these sanctions will fall on the non-cash dollar and euro market. The cash market will continue to function in the same mode. But the selling price of these unfriendly currencies in exchange offices has already jumped up.
— Some particularly zealous banks “raised” the selling rates to 120 rubles per dollar. But you shouldn’t repeat the mistake that inexperienced people usually make: they run in a panic to buy dollars at a high price, and then, when the market calms down and the dollar rolls back from new peaks, they bite their elbows.
— I don’t know what the respected deputy had in mind, but it’s unlikely that anything will prevent you from trading non-deliverable derivatives on the dollar or euro exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange.
— It’s unlikely that new sanctions will have the same effect on the Russian financial market as the first sanctions after the start of the SVO, which caused a powerful financial and currency crisis. Although the sanctions shock can cause quite powerful waves. It is possible that there will be a fairly strong fall in the shares of Russian issuers, primarily those that are subject to new sanctions — for example, the shares of the Moscow Exchange itself.
— There is no need to panic. This is what the regulator says in a press release dated June 12: “All funds in US dollars and euros in the accounts and deposits of citizens and companies remain safe. For deposits and accounts of citizens and organizations in US dollars and euros, the previous regime for issuing funds established by the Bank of Russia is maintained.»