“This is not only possible, but also desirable. But for non-cash payments.»
The dollar exchange rate in Moscow exchange offices rose to 100 rubles after the introduction of sanctions against the Moscow Exchange, whose shares fell by 15%.
Since yesterday, people have been crowding into exchange offices, some banks charge 200 rubles per dollar. Everyone is concerned about one question: will the circulation of the American currency be banned and whether this will cause two parallel exchange rates to arise in Russia — the official and the “black” one.
The famous economist Professor Nikita Krichevsky made his forecast on the situation.
— The advice is this: if you have currency, immediately run to sell it. In a week or two, buy it back at the prices you had yesterday. This is normal panic. Only those who have known Zen do not worry. If you want to make a profit out of the blue, sell currency.
—You just need to choose adequate banks, and not those who make money on panic.
—This is not only possible, but also desirable. But for non-cash payments. It would be extremely desirable, in my opinion, to subsidize the purchase of foreign currency for companies engaged in strategic imports at a more favorable rate.
No one will sell cash currency under the counter, those are not the times, now there is responsibility for illegal banking activities, for illegal business activities. No one will voluntarily expose themselves and hand themselves over to the authorities.
— Also excluded.
— Of course, not those times. The Central Bank made it clear that absolutely nothing changes with regard to cash currency, you can buy, you can sell. Parallel courses, I say again, are not only possible, but also desirable. Because there are non-cash payments.
— Prices will rise, but not critically. Import prices will definitely increase. As for food, there is a high probability that domestic producers and sellers will want to play on panic. Here I predict that the response from the state towards them will be extremely harsh. I believe that by analogy with Belarus two years ago.
— Exactly the same thing. And Lukashenko warned that if you raise the price of products produced within the country, you will go to prison. And he even imprisoned a couple of people as a warning.
— Yes, nothing bad will happen. We have a stable export of raw materials. It does not go through the exchange, but is carried out on over-the-counter platforms. The main part of currency exchange transactions for cash occurs there through personal personal agreements for each group of goods. If previously they sold part of the currency through the Moscow Exchange, now they will do it through banks. Or, for example, exchange them through third friendly countries, through shell companies, for the same rubles and bring them back to Russia.
We have 44% of all exports, and so today they are in rubles. That is, it supplies goods to fictitious Kazakhstan or fictitious Armenia, and the company of this country acts further as a seller. A case in point is Türkiye, the third largest oil exporter to Europe at the end of last year. Whose oil are they selling, considering that there is no oil in Turkey, what do you think?
— Correct. So it will be. Or barter will return. Just like in the 90s. They will receive a ton of oil from us…
— Of course, such a scheme will initially complicate and increase the cost of international payments. But we already went through this in the 90s. It will take up to a couple of months to work through all this. I’m actually surprised why this sanction was introduced so late. She's been asking for it for a long time. And our Central Bank began preparing for a similar outcome two years ago, but the roller coaster has only just rolled in now. So, by and large, nothing will get much worse for ordinary people. In addition to rising prices. But, I repeat, the growth will not be critical.